|

AUD/USD slides towards 0.7000 as unimpressive China data joins RBA, Fed concerns

  • AUD/USD renews intraday low amid sour sentiment, mixed data.
  • China Caixin PMI fails to overcome 50.0 mark despite improving in January.
  • Mixed concerns over RBA’s next move, especially after strong inflation and downbeat Retail Sales, weigh on Aussie prices.
  • Cautious mood can weigh on risk-barometer pair ahead of Fed’s verdict.

AUD/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low around 0.7040 as the market’s anxiety ahead of the key Fed verdict amplifies during early Wednesday. Adding strength to the pullback moves could be the Chinese activity data from the industry group.

That said, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2 versus 49.0 prior but eased below 49.5 market forecasts. Also, the below 50 readings for the sixth consecutive month adds strength to the bearish bias surrounding Australia’s biggest customer.

Elsewhere, RBA’s Head of the Economic Analysis Department Marion Kohler mentioned that the bank believes inflation peaked in Q4 of 2022. On the contrary, James Glynn from Wall Street Journal (WSJ) mentioned that the RBA is set to deliver a string of hikes and keep guidance hawkish during the next week’s monetary policy meeting.

It should be observed that the market sentiment turns sour after upbeat data as traders brace for today’s key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting amid receding fears of inflation and stagnant recession woes. Also making today’s Fed meeting interesting is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish stand and readiness to defend the aggressive rate hikes even if the latest inflation cursors have been downbeat.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures prints mild losses while the US Treasury bond yields remain sluggish and pause the previous day’s pullback. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up bids to reverse Tuesday’s losses around 102.15.

Moving on, the Fed’s 0.25% rate hike is already given but Fed Chair Powell’s speech will be crucial.

Technical analysis

A daily closing below the one-month-old ascending trend line, around 0.7015 by the press time, becomes necessary to convince AUD/USD bears.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price0.7045
Today Daily Change-0.0014
Today Daily Change %-0.20%
Today daily open0.7059
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.697
Daily SMA500.6834
Daily SMA1000.6661
Daily SMA2000.6811
 
Levels
Previous Daily High0.7066
Previous Daily Low0.6984
Previous Weekly High0.7143
Previous Weekly Low0.696
Previous Monthly High0.7143
Previous Monthly Low0.6688
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.7034
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.7015
Daily Pivot Point S10.7007
Daily Pivot Point S20.6954
Daily Pivot Point S30.6925
Daily Pivot Point R10.7088
Daily Pivot Point R20.7118
Daily Pivot Point R30.717

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD bounces off four-day lows, still below 1.3500

GBP/USD sticks to the bearish tone on Thursday, coming down to the 1.3480 region in the latter part of the NA session. In the meantime, Cable’s weakness comes as investors continue to assess mixed UK data, poor US results, and the persistent uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict.

EUR/USD looks apathetic around 1.1530

EUR/USD reverses Wednesday’s downtick and trades with modest gains in the 1.1530 region following the end of the NA session on Thursday. The pair’s tepid advance comes on the back of the absence of clear direction in the US Dollar despite tensions from the Middle East appear far from alleviated. Later on Friday, investors are expected to monitor the the releases of another revision of GDP figures in the Euroland, US Retail Sales and the preliminary U-Mich gauge.

Gold remains on the defensive below $4,350; downside seems cushioned

Gold trades below $4,350 during the Asian session on Friday and looks to extend the previous day's pullback from the highest level since June 5 as the US-Iran standoff continues to underpin the US Dollar's reserve-currency status. However, reduced bets for an immediate Fed rate hike, amid signs of cooling US inflation, should act as a tailwind for the non-yielding bullion and help limit deeper losses.

Dogecoin reclaims $0.07 support as whales step in
Dogecoin (DOGE) edges above the daily open, trading above $0.070 as of Thursday. While this uptick offers a positive signal, DOGE continues to trade within a broader bearish context, down approximately 12% from its July peak of $0.079. Still, should the $0.070 support level hold, the mild recovery could gather pace, targeting resistance at $0.080 and potentially the key $0.100 threshold.
Why credit markets aren’t pricing $570B of AI debt

Forecasts put global artificial intelligence related debt issuance near $570 billion this year, with roughly $236 billion of it priced by the end of May at four times the prior year's pace. Data centre securitisation alone has gone from about $4 billion a year through 2022 to roughly $10 billion in each of 2023 and 2024, and then $27 billion in 2025.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?
Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.