EUR/USD Price Forecast: Upside momentum intact as ECB decision looms

EUR/USD rebounds as US Dollar recovery fades, with traders turning cautious ahead of the ECB interest rate decision.
ECB expected to hold rates on Thursday; focus shifts to Lagarde’s guidance on the policy path into 2026.
Technical outlook remains bullish, with EUR/USD holding above key moving averages after an inverse head and shoulders breakout.

Vishal Chaturvedi FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) rebounds against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after coming under pressure earlier, as a short-lived recovery in the Greenback fades. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades near 1.1750, reversing from a daily low around 1.1703.

Attention now turns squarely to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday at 13:15 GMT, where policymakers are widely expected to leave all three key interest rates unchanged. With the policy outcome largely priced in, markets will focus on President Christine Lagarde’s press conference for fresh guidance on the ECB’s monetary policy path heading into 2026.

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD remains constructive on the daily chart, with the pair extending its recovery after breaking out of an inverse head-and-shoulders formation. Prices continue to trade comfortably above key moving averages, reinforcing the broader bullish bias.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 1.1804, the previous day’s high, with a sustained break opening the door toward the September 17 high near 1.1918, which also marks the year-to-date peak. On the downside, initial support lies near 1.1700, followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)around 1.1650, which could help limit deeper pullbacks.

Momentum indicators remain supportive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds just below the 70 threshold, pointing to strong upside momentum without clear signs of exhaustion. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above zero with the signal lines widening, suggesting that bullish momentum remains in place.

Economic Indicator

ECB Monetary Policy Statement

At each of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) eight governing council meetings, the ECB releases a short statement explaining its monetary policy decision, in light of its goal of meeting its inflation target. The statement may influence the volatility of the Euro (EUR) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. A hawkish view is considered bullish for EUR, whereas a dovish view is considered bearish.

EUR/USD remains weak near 1.1800

EUR/USD rapidly fades Tuesday’s uptick and resumes its weekly retracement, challenging the 1.1800 support at the end of the NA session on Wednesday. The pair’s drop comes in response to extra gains in the US Dollar. Moving forward, the ECB meets on Thursday and is seen leaving its policy rate unchanged.

GBP/USD churns near 1.3700 ahead of BoE rate call

GBP/USD remains trapped in a near-term cycling pattern on Wednesday, continuing to churn aimlessly between 1.3700 and 1.3650. Cable traders are unlikely to pick a meaningful direction until after the Bank of England’s latest interest rate decision, due during Thursday’s London market session.

Gold stays offered below $5,000

Gold is back under pressure on Wednesday, slipping below the $5,000 mark per troy ounce as Wednesday’s session draws to a close. The pullback comes amid renewed strength in the US Dollar alongside mixed moves in US Treasury yields across the curve.

Dogecoin plummets as retail investors exit amid broad market sell-off

Dogecoin holds near support at $0.1000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, as bears tighten their grip on assets across the crypto market. The leading meme coin remains on the back foot, weighed down by risk-off sentiment, low retail activity and weak technicals.

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Ripple stabilizes amid mixed signals as ETF inflows resume despite low retail activity

Ripple hovers around the $1.60 pivotal level at the time of writing on Wednesday, reflecting stable but weak sentiment across the crypto market. Intense volatility triggered a brief sell-off on Tuesday, driving the remittance token to pick up liquidity at $1.53 before recovering to the current level.