EUR/USD Price Forecast: Upside momentum intact as ECB decision looms

EUR/USD rebounds as US Dollar recovery fades, with traders turning cautious ahead of the ECB interest rate decision.
ECB expected to hold rates on Thursday; focus shifts to Lagarde’s guidance on the policy path into 2026.
Technical outlook remains bullish, with EUR/USD holding above key moving averages after an inverse head and shoulders breakout.

Vishal Chaturvedi FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) rebounds against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after coming under pressure earlier, as a short-lived recovery in the Greenback fades. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades near 1.1750, reversing from a daily low around 1.1703.

Attention now turns squarely to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday at 13:15 GMT, where policymakers are widely expected to leave all three key interest rates unchanged. With the policy outcome largely priced in, markets will focus on President Christine Lagarde’s press conference for fresh guidance on the ECB’s monetary policy path heading into 2026.

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD remains constructive on the daily chart, with the pair extending its recovery after breaking out of an inverse head-and-shoulders formation. Prices continue to trade comfortably above key moving averages, reinforcing the broader bullish bias.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 1.1804, the previous day’s high, with a sustained break opening the door toward the September 17 high near 1.1918, which also marks the year-to-date peak. On the downside, initial support lies near 1.1700, followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)around 1.1650, which could help limit deeper pullbacks.

Momentum indicators remain supportive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds just below the 70 threshold, pointing to strong upside momentum without clear signs of exhaustion. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above zero with the signal lines widening, suggesting that bullish momentum remains in place.

Economic Indicator

ECB Monetary Policy Statement

At each of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) eight governing council meetings, the ECB releases a short statement explaining its monetary policy decision, in light of its goal of meeting its inflation target. The statement may influence the volatility of the Euro (EUR) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. A hawkish view is considered bullish for EUR, whereas a dovish view is considered bearish.

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