USD/KRW: Range trade with slight downside bias – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/KRW has traded lower but remains range-bound, supported by strong Korean exports and better sentiment. While US tariff uncertainty can be USD-negative, broader risk-off could still cap KRW gains. The bank expects the BoK to hold rates, with FX impact driven by guidance, and continues to look for range trading as markets await tariff clarity.

BoK tone and risk sentiment in focus

"USDKRW traded lower over the last few sessions but remains well within its recent range."

"Strong exports numbers and pick-up in Korea consumer confidence, alongside US trade policy uncertainty were some of the drivers keeping KRW supported."

"While recent US tariff uncertainty can be USD-negative, we cautioned that any deterioration in broader risk sentiment can still restraint gains on high beta proxies such as KRW."

"For now, we still look for range trade as markets await greater clarity on the tariff path and its second-order impact on risk appetite."

"Support at 1435 (23.6% fibo retracement of Dec high to Jan low), 1432 and 1429 levels. Resistance at 1449/52 levels (21, 100 DMAs, 50% fibo), 1458/60 levels (50 DMA, 61.8% fibo)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)