AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls struggle to find acceptance above 0.7815-20 supply zone

The post-NFP USD selloff pushed AUD/USD to the highest level since March 18.
The lack of any follow-through buying warrants some caution for bullish traders.
The stage still seems set for a move beyond March swing highs, near mid-0.7800s.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair caught some aggressive bids during the early North American session and jumped to the highest level since March 18, around the 0.7835 region in the last hour.

The US monthly jobs report for April missed market expectations by a big margin and triggered a broad-based US dollar selloff. This was seen as a key factor that provided a strong lift to the AUD/USD pair. Apart from this, the underlying bullish sentiment further benefitted the perceived riskier aussie and remained supportive of the positive move.

Despite the combination of supporting factors, the AUD/USD pair struggled to capitalize on the momentum or find acceptance above the 0.7815-20 horizontal barrier and quickly retreated few pips from daily swing highs. The pullback warrants some caution before confirming a near-term bullish breakout and positioning for any further appreciating move.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias and are still far from being in the overbought territory. This, in turn, supports prospects for an eventual break through the mentioned barrier and an extension of this week's solid bounce from the 0.7675 region, or the lowest April 14 touched earlier this week on Tuesday.

Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair now seems poised to surpass March monthly swing highs resistance near mid-0.7800s and aim to reclaim the 0.7900 round-figure mark for the first time since February 25. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a move towards the 0.7965-70 region before bulls lift the pair further towards the key 0.8000 psychological mark.

On the flip side, weakness below the 0.7800-0.7790 region might now find decent support near the 0.7760 level. Any subsequent decline could be seen as an opportunity to initiate fresh bullish positions. This, in turn, should help limit the downside near the 0.7700 mark, which should now act as a strong near-term base for the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Technical levels to watch

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.7814
Today Daily Change	0.0031
Today Daily Change %	0.40
Today daily open	0.7783

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.7731
Daily SMA50	0.7707
Daily SMA100	0.771
Daily SMA200	0.7476

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.7788
Previous Daily Low	0.77
Previous Weekly High	0.7819
Previous Weekly Low	0.7696
Previous Monthly High	0.7819
Previous Monthly Low	0.7531
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.7755
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.7734
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.7727
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.767
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.7639
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.7814
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.7845
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.7902

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.