AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls flirt with 200-hour SMA/50% Fibo. confluence, US NFP awaited

AUD/USD trades with a mild positive bias for the second straight day on Friday.
The setup seems tilted in favour of bulls and supports prospects for further gains.
Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the NFP report.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair ticks higher during the Asian session on Friday, albeit lacks any follow-through and struggles to make it through the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). Spot prices, however, manage to hold comfortably above a two-week low touched on Thursday and hold steady just above the 0.6600 mark as traders keenly await the release of the US NFP report for a fresh impetus.

From a technical perspective, the aforementioned handle coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of this week's sharp pullback from the highest level since August. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart are still holding in the positive territory. Hence, a convincing breakout through the said confluence hurdle should lift the AUD/USD pair beyond the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 0.6625-0.6630 area, towards the next relevant resistance near mid-0.6600s. Some follow-through buying could pave the way for a further appreciating move and allow bulls to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the 0.6700 round figure.

On the flip side, the 100-hour SMA, currently pegged near the 0.6590-0.6585 region, might now protect the immediate downside. The said area nears the 50% Fibo. level, which if broken decisively could drag the AUD/USD pair further towards the 0.6545 intermediate support en route to a two-week trough, around the 0.6525 area. This is followed by the 0.6500 psychological mark, below which the downward trajectory could get extended further towards the 0.6460 horizontal resistance breakpoint, now turned support. Spot prices could eventually weaken below the 0.6400 mark and test the 0.6350-0.6345 support zone.

AUD/USD 1-hour chart

Techncial levels to watch

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6607
Today Daily Change	0.0003
Today Daily Change %	0.05
Today daily open	0.6604

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6551
Daily SMA50	0.6443
Daily SMA100	0.6467
Daily SMA200	0.6577

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.662
Previous Daily Low	0.6526
Previous Weekly High	0.6677
Previous Weekly Low	0.6567
Previous Monthly High	0.6677
Previous Monthly Low	0.6318
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6584
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6562
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6546
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6488
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6451
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6641
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6678
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6736

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD picks up bids above 0.7100 after RBA-speak

AUD/USD picks up bids above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Tuesday, following hawkish comments from RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter and Governor Michele Bullock. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Fed's hawkish outlook remain supportive of the bullish US Dollar undertone, which could limit the pair. The crucial Trump-Xi summit is later this week and remains in focus.

USD/JPY holds small gains near 157.50 as JPY intervention risks loom

USD/JPY posts modest gains while trading near 157.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday as intervention fears help limit losses for the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's dovish rate hike to a 31-year high keeps JPY bulls on the back foot. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a bullish undertone amid the Fed's hawkish outlook and escalating Middle East tensions, providing tailwinds for the pair.

Gold makes a U-turn; focus shifts to $4,400

Gold regains balance and now trades with decent gains, approaching the key $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s advance comes despite the resumption of the buying interest in the US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty.

Trump meets Xi: Why markets are watching this summit so closely

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet in Washington on Thursday for a summit closely watched by markets. The meeting could determine whether the world's two largest economies extend their truce or enter a new period of uncertainty.

Energy and risk markets remain in the driver’s seat

US stock markets rallied up 2.26% (Nasdaq) yesterday with AI/tech names leading the advance. The Nasdaq even tested the all-time high reached early June. The likes of the S&P 500 and EuroStoxx50 recovered up to 1.5%. Positive risk vibes and lower energy prices supported consolidation on bond markets following the past month’s heavy losses. European yield curves bull steepened.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.