AUD/USD: on the defensive, RBA trims inflation forecasts

  • RBA’s downward revision of inflation forecasts could bolster the already bearish technical setup in the AUD/USD pair. 
  • AUD risks deeper losses if CNY continues to fall.

The AUD/USD pair is trading at a five-day low of 0.7366, having created a bearish outside-day candle yesterday and risks falling further, courtesy of Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) downward revision of the inflation forecasts. 

The RBA trimmed the December 2018 underlying inflation forecast to 1.75 percent and now sees inflation at 2 percent in December 2019 and 2.25 percent in December 2020, the central bank’s statement of monetary policy showed. 

The downward revision of inflation forecasts adds credence to RBA’s view that there is no strong case for a near-term rate move. The central bank also raised GDP (year average) forecast for 2018 to 3.25% from 3%, however, so far, that has not put a bid under the Aussie. 

Further, the AUD is vulnerable to a drop in the Chinese yuan. As a result, the AUD risks posting a negative follow-through to previous day's big bearish outside-day candle -  a move which will likely strengthen the bear grip around the Aussie dollar. 

AUD/USD Technical Levels

Resistance: 0.7395 (5-day MA), 0.7434 (50-day MA), 0.7453 (previous day’s high)

Support: 0.7348 (Aug. 3 low), 0.7318 (July 20 low), 0.73 (psychological level)

15M Bearish Neutral Shrinking
1H Bullish Oversold Expanding
4H Bearish Oversold High
1D Bullish Neutral Shrinking
1W Bearish Neutral Low


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