AUD/USD: Mildly bid around 0.7400 on upbeat sentiment, softer Victorian covid counts

• AUD/USD prints three-day uptrend, consolidates the fourth weekly loss near year’s low.
• Victoria reports half the infections after 43,543 coronavirus tests.
• Stimulus optimism, vaccine updates favor risk appetite amid a quiet session.
• US PMIs will be the key after Aussie CBA numbers were ignored.

AUD/USD takes the bids around 0.7390, up 0.15% intraday, amid Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair rises for the third consecutive day as the market’s mild optimism joins the encouraging COVID-19 figures at home.

After conducting an exhaustive 43,543 tests, Victorian authorities got 14 positive results, versus the previous day’s figure of 28. On the other hand, Queensland marks the first infection in three days whereas the New South Wales (NSW) figures are in the pipeline. Elsewhere, China reports fresh 35 asymptomatic cases versus 18 a day earlier, per Reuters.

Other than the covid data, the US vaccine panel’s support for COVID-19 booster shots and policymaker’s optimism over further stimulus, not to forget the relief in altering the US debt limits, also favor the sentiment.

On the contrary, the death tolls are on the north-run in the UK with scientists warning of the return of the lockdown in three weeks. Furthermore, the Brexit jitters and a lack of clarity over the Fed’s moves, ahead of the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also weigh on the mood amid an off in Japan and a light calendar in Asia. Additionally, the downbeat prints of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s (CBA) preliminary readings for July PMIs were also trying to recall the AUD/USD bears, but fail so far.

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print 0.32% upside whereas the US bonds stay firmer around 1.28% by the press time.

Looking forward US PMIs for July will be the key as market players will be interested in softer prints to reconfirm the covid woes, failing to do so can extend the AUD/USD recovery from year’s low.

Read: US Markit PMIs Preview: Pre-weekend dollar boost? Downbeat figures could exacerbate risk-off mood

It’s worth noting that New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern is up for holding a press conference around 01:30 AM GMT on Friday to convey the trans-Tasman travel bubble news. The Aussie neighbor has cut the travel ties of late and may extend the stand amid the virus resurgence, which in turn could challenge AUD/USD bulls. However, any surprise opening of borders could bolster the pair’s latest upside moves.

Technical analysis

Until declining below 0.7340–45 area comprising tops marked in September and November 2020, AUD/USD remains directed towards early July lows and highs marked during August 2020 around 0.7415.