- AUD/USD reverses early Wednesday’s corrective bounce, remains pressured at four-month low.
- Sour sentiment, dovish comments from RBA’s Lowe joined upbeat US data to weigh on Aussie price.
- Inactive markets restrict AUD/USD moves ahead of key data.
- China CPI/PPI can entertain traders before Friday’s US jobs report.
AUD/USD holds its place on the bear’s radar, after an initial attempt to leave the zone, as it stays depressed near 0.6590 amid early Thursday morning in Asia.
The Aussie pair tried paring weekly losses at the lowest levels in four months during early Wednesday amid sluggish markets. However, dovish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe joined upbeat US data and repetition of the hawkish statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the bear’s dominance. It should be noted that the cautious mood ahead of today’s China inflation numbers seems to probe the risk barometer, due to its ties with the dragon nation.
On early Wednesday, the US removed testing restrictions on the travelers from China and joined a light calendar to allow the traders to lick their wounds after a volatile Tuesday. However, RBA’s Lowe said that the RBA was closer to pausing its aggressive cycle of rate increases as the policy was now in the restrictive territory and there were signs the economy was responding. It should be noted that Lowe also mentioned, “China reopening is positive for our economy,” while also adding that no particular implications for inflation from China reopening.
Elsewhere, Fed’s Powell repeated his hawkish calls of readiness to lift the rate while highlighting stronger-than-expected inflation pressure. The same bolstered calls for the Fed’s 50 bps rate hike but the Testimony 2.0 didn’t have anything new from what’s already heard on Tuesday and hence traders were mostly afraid of taking any major steps.
Talking about the data, the US ADP Employment Change rose to 242K in February versus 200K market forecasts and 119K prior (revised). Further, the US Goods and Services Trade Balance dropped to $-68.3B from the $-67.2B previous reading (revised) and $-68.9B analysts’ estimations. It should be noted that the US JOLTS Job Openings for January improved to 10.824M versus 10.6M expected but eased from 11.234M revised prior.
Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed mixed and the US Treasury bond yields remained firmer with minor moves and keeping the yield curve inversion the widest since 1981, which in turn allowed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to remain firmer.
Looking ahead, China’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February will be important after the latest improvements in the Aussie-China ties. However, RBA’s Lowe has already mentioned no effects of the inflation emanating from China reopening on Canberra and the same could weigh on the AUD/USD in case of a downbeat outcome. Above all, Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls are the key to clear directions.
Technical analysis
AUD/USD sellers appear to run out of steam amid oversold RSI (14) conditions. With this, the 0.6540-20 support zone, marked during September-November 2022, gains major attention. The recovery moves, however, remain elusive unless the quote offers a daily closing beyond the one-month-old descending trend line, previous support around 0.6615.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops below 1.0800 after German Retail Sales data
EUR/USD has come under fresh selling pressure and trades below 1.0800 after the data from Germany showed that Retail Sales declined by 1.9% MoM in February. Resurgent US Dollar demand is adding to the downside in the pair. US data are next in focus.
GBP/USD stays weak near 1.2600 amid market caution
GBP/USD remains defensive near 1.2600 in European trading on Thursday. The hawkish tone from Fed Governor Christopher Waller keeps the US Dollar afloat amid a cautious trading environment ahead of key US data releases and the Good Friday trading lull.
Gold price holds strength ahead of US core PCE inflation
Gold price holds onto gains near $2,200 in Thursday’s European session. The precious metal exhibits firm footing ahead of the United States core PCE Price Index data for February, which will be published on Friday.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2
Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.