Minna Kuusisto, Analyst at Danske Bank, expects the Aussie dollar to lose further ground in the next months.
“The AUD has been stuck in the range of 0.745-0.770 for the second half of this year”.
“In October, the AUD diverged from the oil price development as the commodity currency depreciated despite an upbeat central bank and oil price rally”.
“Key drivers have been increased expectations of an upcoming Fed rate hike and a general risk-off mode”.
“We are relatively positive about the emerging markets and expect a gradual increase in commodity prices. Still, we expect the AUD to gradually drift lower as a result of less attractive relative yield once the Fed resumes rate hikes”.
“While waiting for the Fed’s next move, we can expect the range-trading to continue and daily moves to be driven mainly by general risk-on/-off sentiment. We leave our forecast unchanged”.