Analysts at Rabobank see the AUD/USD pair not correlated to risk as it used to be. They forecast it will trade at 0.75 in three months. 

Key Quotes: 

“Measured since the start of the war in Ukraine, the AUD is the best performing G10 currency. In this time frame commodity currencies dominate the top of the performance table with the commodity importing currencies such as the JPY and European currencies trailing behind.”

“In addition to the boon coming from high commodity prices, there is pre-existing strength in Australia’s labour market. Concerns that this may result in higher wage inflation have increased the chances that the RBA will hike interest rates this year. The RBA has been one of the more dovish G10 central banks, but markets are anticipating that this will change in the coming months.  Even in the best case scenario of a peace deal for Ukraine, it is likely that Europe will continue to strive for more energy independence from Russia. This suggests higher prices for alternative energy sources for some time, which is likely to maintain support for currencies such as the AUD.”

“We have brought forward our 6 month 0.75 AUD/USD forecast to a 3 month view and expect a move towards 0.76 in 6 months.”
 

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