AUD/USD falls to multi-month low below 0.6500 ahead of US labor market data

The Australian dollar dropped to multi-month lows due to the strong US Dollar and uncertainties surrounding US labor market data and the debt-limit bill facing resistance in Congress. On the other hand, Australian inflation in April picked up somewhat but bond yields are declining adding further pressure on the Australian Dollar.

Australian and American yields are weak ahead of NFP data

Following Monday’s release of the sharp decline in Australian Building permits of 8% vs the 2% increase expected, Australian yields continue to decline. The 10-year bond is yielding 3.60% and showing 0.24% losses.The 2-year rate stands at 3.55% down by 0.51% , while the 5-year yield is at 3.37% losing 0.24% . 

On the flip side, US bond yields are declining, indicating a bearish market sentiment driven by heightened demand for American bonds. The 10-year yield retraced to 3.66% with a loss of 1.13%, while the 2-year yield stands at 4.38% reflecting a decline of 2.12%. Similarly, the 5-year yield sits at 3.77% with losses of 1.33%.

That being said, the American bonds market may face some volatility ahed the release of key labor market data from the US. On Thursday,  the Automatic Data Processing Inc., will release the employment change figures from May and on Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) from the same month. In that sense both reports are expected to hint at more pain in the US labor market which may have an impact on the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) decision. At the time being, market participants expect a 25 basis points (bps) hike.

In addition, the JOLTS Job Openings released on Wednesday, from the US, for April, came in at 10.10M vs the 9.37M expected. For the rest of the session, investors will eye the release of the Fed Beige book to have a better understanding of the current economic situation in the US.

Levels to watch

The AUD/USD has a bearish outlook for the short term as indicators on the daily chart suggest that the sellers have the upperhand while the pair trades well below its main Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

In addition, If the Aussie continues to lose ground, immediate support levels are seen at the 0.6440 zone followed by the 0.6300 area, and then at the 0.6250 level. On the other cand, in case the Aussie gains traction, the following resistance line up at the 0.6500 zone followed by the 0.6550 and 0.6600 levels.