AUD/USD fails to cheer RBA's cautious optimism above 0.7700

  • AUD/USD extends recovery moves from intraday low, steps back of late, following RBA announcement.
  • RBA matches wide market expectations to keep benchmark rate, bond purchases unchanged.
  • Aussie data came in mixed during early Asia, risk-off seems to recently weigh on the quote.
  • US data, risk catalysts remain as the key to forecast near-term trade direction.

AUD/USD ticks up to 0.7755 before declining to 0.7745, down 0.23% intraday, following the RBA’s status-quo during early Tuesday. In doing so, the quote struggles to defy the risk-off mood even as the Aussie central bank remains cautiously optimistic.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps its Cash Rate unchanged at 0.10% while also reiterating the 3-year bond yield target as 0.10%. The Aussie central bank also said, “Central scenario for GDP growth has been revised up further, with growth of 4¾ percent expected over 2021 and 3½ percent over 2022.”

Read: RBA: Central scenario for GDP growth has been revised up further

Earlier in the day, Australia’s weekly consumer sentiment data, Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes came in strong. However, Aussie trade figures for March disappointed optimists not only the headlines Trade Balance but Imports and Exports also shrank during the reported period.

In addition to the downbeat data, challenges to the market sentiment also weighed on the AUD/USD prices during Asia. Among them, requests from Japan’s largest prefecture (by area) to take further measures to tame the coronavirus (COVID-19) and the absence of the RBNZ Governor due to the sickness in the upcoming meeting tested the bulls. Also on the risk-negative side were the updates from the three-day meeting of Foreign Ministers of the Group of Seven industrialized nations (G7) that discusses various issues ranging from geopolitical and trade fears from Russia and China to the coronavirus (COVID-19) in London.

Alternatively, economic optimism by the Fed policymakers and UK PM Boris Johnson seems to battle the bears. Though, off in China and Japan restricts the market moves.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures drop for a third consecutive day while the US dollar index (DXY) nurses Monday’s losses by the press time.

Having witnessed the initial reaction to the key catalysts for AUD/USD pair, traders will keep their eyes on the market sentiment ahead of the US session for fresh impulse. Given the recent risk-off mood amid fresh covid concerns in Asia-Pacific, coupled with upbeat expectations from the US data, the pair may remain depressed for a while.

Technical analysis

Bulls and bears jostle between 0.7690 and 0.7820. While multiple highs marked during the last month define the upper limit, horizontal support area, comprising lows marked in late February and April, as well as March 29 top, portrays the range low.

Additional important levels

Today last price 0.7741
Today Daily Change -20 pips
Today Daily Change % -0.26%
Today daily open 0.7761
Daily SMA20 0.7715
Daily SMA50 0.7717
Daily SMA100 0.7705
Daily SMA200 0.7468
Previous Daily High 0.7768
Previous Daily Low 0.7706
Previous Weekly High 0.7819
Previous Weekly Low 0.7696
Previous Monthly High 0.7819
Previous Monthly Low 0.7531
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.7744
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.7729
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.7722
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.7682
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.7659
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.7784
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.7807
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.7847



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