AUD/USD declines ahead of Australian PMI, RBA cautious on inflation

AUD/USD trades lower around 0.6440 at the time of writing on Thursday, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) adopts a cautious tone ahead of the flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November due later in the day. Investors are also digesting recent signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which increasingly point to a central bank attentive to the persistence of inflationary pressures.

The RBA’s cautious message was reinforced by comments from Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, who warned on Thursday that “sustained above-trend growth could fuel inflationary pressures.” She also noted that monthly inflation data can be volatile and that the central bank will not react to a single month of figures. Hunter added that the RBA is closely monitoring labour-market conditions to gauge the economy’s supply capacity and is assessing whether the transmission of monetary policy may be evolving over time.

Her comments echo the RBA’s November Minutes, which suggested that an extended period of unchanged rates could be appropriate if economic data continue to outperform. Stable Q3 wage growth, strong labour market figures last week, and persistently high inflation all support the idea that the easing cycle has likely ended. ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures show that the December 2025 contract implies only a 6% chance of a rate cut to 3.35% from 3.60%.

In the United States (US), the US Dollar (USD) retains moderate support following a mixed labour report. September’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 119K, far above expectations for 50K, but this strength was offset by a downward revision to August, an uptick in the Unemployment Rate to 4.4%, and slower wage growth at 0.2% MoM. This mixed picture adds uncertainty to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path, especially with the October jobs report postponed due to the US government shutdown.

Investors remain cautious ahead of the December Fed meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now price only a 31.8% chance of a December rate cut, down from nearly 50% a week earlier. The hawkish tone in the October FOMC Minutes, along with comments from officials such as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Michael Barr, who remains concerned that inflation is still near 3%, has limited expectations for near-term easing.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Downward pressure continues

AUD/USD 4-hour chart. Source: FXStreet

In the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6447, down for the day. It sits 35 pips below the day’s opening price. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) trends lower around 0.6518, reinforcing a bearish bias. Price holds beneath this gauge, and the downward slope keeps rebounds capped. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips to 36, below the 50 midline, highlighting persistent selling pressure. A descending trend line from 0.6580 restrains upside, with resistance emerging near 0.6495.

Support is seen at 0.6440, then at 0.6415. Resistance aligns at 0.6495, followed by 0.6580 and 0.6630. A break beneath the first support could expose the next level, while a push above the initial resistance would open the path toward the subsequent barriers.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)