FX Strategists at UOB Group noted the pair’s upside could reach the 0.7315 level in the next weeks.
Key Quotes
24-hour view: “we noted “a break of the major and long-term 0.7145/60 support zone could lead to further AUD weakness towards the round-number support of 0.7000”. While AUD took out the strong support zone shortly after, the subsequent decline was anything but ‘smooth’ as it took about 7 weeks before AUD came close to challenging 0.7000 (AUD briefly touched 0.7021 on 26 Oct 18). The failure to break the ‘psychological’ 0.7000 support, the strong surge last week* and the break of the 8-1/2 month declining trend-line resistance at 0.7260 yesterday (07 Nov) all point to the possibility that the 0.7021 low could be a mid to long-term bottom. In other words, the 0.7021 low could stay intact in the coming weeks, if not months. At this stage, we ascribe about 65% chance that AUD made a mid to long-term bottom”.
Next 1-3 weeks: “Meanwhile, we are expecting the short-term AUD strength to extend to 0.7315. A breach of this level would shift the focus to 0.7380 followed by the major long-term resistance at 0.7455. From a multi weeks and months perspective, only a move back below 0.7130 would suggest that the current upward pressure in AUD has eased (note that weekly MACD has just turned positive as of last Friday, the first time since the first week of March)”.
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