- AUD/USD consolidates weekly losses amid quiet session, light calendar.
- Treasury yields rebound, USD retreats even as recession fears probe optimists.
- Aussie yields brace for the biggest fall in a decade as hawkish RBA lures bond buyers.
- RBA’s Lowe should repeat readiness for higher rates to defend Aussie bulls.
AUD/USD dribbles around 0.6900, marking the first daily gains in three, as risk-aversion ebbs during early Friday morning in Europe. A light calendar and a lack of major negatives from macro seem to have underpinned the Aussie pair’s latest corrective pullback ahead of the scheduled speech from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe.
US 10-year Treasury yields rebound from a two-week low, flashed the previous day, as traders await more clues to confirm the economic slowdown. Even so, the bond coupons brace for the first weekly loss in four while reversing from the highest levels since 2011, at 3.09% by the press time.
At home, Australia’s 10-year Treasury bond yields extend pullback from the highest levels since 2014 despite the 1.0% daily gains around 3.71%. More importantly, the 3-year counterpart eyes the biggest weekly loss since 2011 with over 11% fall to 3.31% by the press time.
It’s worth noting that 0.50% intraday gains of the S&P 500 Futures also portray the market’s cautious optimism, or at least consolidation of the latest pessimism, during early Friday.
Amid these plays, the US Dollar Index (DXY) drops 0.15% intraday to 104.25 at the latest, which in turn allows commodities and Antipodeans to lick their wounds.
While a pause in the risk-off mood and softer USD triggered the Aussie pair’s rebound, headlines suggesting improved traffic in China add strength to the recovery moves. Even so, a cautious mood ahead of a speech from RBA’s Lowe tests the bulls.
That said, softer US PMIs and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s readiness for more rate hikes, as well as fears over economic growth, seemed to have weighed on the AUD/USD prices the previous day. In doing so, the Aussie bears ignored upbeat S&P Global PMIs for Australia.
Moving on, AUD/USD prices are likely to remain firmer as RBA’s Lowe might not want to spoil his reputation by stepping back from the latest comments suggesting further rate hikes. Also important for the pair traders to watch is the US New Home Sales for May. Above all, updates concerning central bank moves and recession will be important to watch for clear directions.
Technical analysis
AUD/USD recovery needs validation from a downward sloping resistance line from June 07, at 0.6930 by the press time. However, sellers are likely to remain away until witnessing a downside break of the six-week-old support line, around 0.6855-60 at the latest.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0650 amid risk reset
EUR/USD is holding onto its recovery mode near 1.0650 in European trading on Friday. A recovery in risk sentiment is helping the pair, as the safe-haven US Dollar pares gains. Earlier today, reports of an Israeli strike inside Iran spooked markets.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD is rebounding toward 1.2450 in early Europe on Friday, having tested 1.2400 after the UK Retail Sales volumes stagnated again in March, The pair recovers in tandem with risk sentiment, as traders take account of the likely Israel's missile strikes on Iran.
Gold: Middle East war fears spark fresh XAU/USD rally, will it sustain?
Gold price is trading close to $2,400 early Friday, reversing from a fresh five-day high reached at $2,418 earlier in the Asian session. Despite the pullback, Gold price remains on track to book the fifth weekly gain in a row.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: All eyes on BTC as CNN calls halving the ‘World Cup for Bitcoin’
Bitcoin price remains the focus of traders and investors ahead of the halving, which is an important event expected to kick off the next bull market. Amid conflicting forecasts from analysts, an international media site has lauded the halving and what it means for the industry.
Geopolitics once again take centre stage, as UK Retail Sales wither
Nearly a week to the day when Iran sent drones and missiles into Israel, Israel has retaliated and sent a missile into Iran. The initial reports caused a large uptick in the oil price.