AUD/USD bulls failure to reclaim 0.7250 opens the door of YTD retest at 0.7105

The AUD/USD is grinding lower versus the greenback, down 0.15%, and trading at 0.7188 during the day at the time of writing. The market sentiment as the European session advances is upbeat, as European indices are in the green, despite thin liquidity conditions, attributed to the Thanksgiving celebration in the US.

A critical development is Europe becoming the new COVID-19 epicenter, with cases rising at record levels. Countries like Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Netherlands, and Hungary reported new highs in daily infections as winter approaches. Added to Austria − that reimposed a two-week lockdown− there is now Germany, which started to impose tighter rules amid the country’s worst COVID-19 surge.

In the overnight session, the AUD/USD pair traded sideways within the 0.7170-0.7200 range, with a light economic docket our of Australia. The Private Capital Expenditure for the Third Quarter, which shrank 2.2%, more than the 2% contraction estimated by analysts, did not have any meaningful impact on the AUD/USD pair. On the US front, the observance of Thanksgiving would not offer new macroeconomic data until the following week.

On Friday, the economic docket for Australia will feature the Retail Sales for October. That data, alongside US dollar dynamics and market sentiment, will be the factors that could move the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD has a downward bias, as the daily moving averages (DMA’s) are well located with a downslope above the spot price. Also, the break of an upslope trendline on last week’s Friday, followed by intense selling pressure on Monday, dented AUD bullish prospects, as AUD bulls have struggled to reclaim the 0.7250 level.

In the outcome of extending the downtrend, the first support is likely to be the September 30 swing low at 0.7169. A breach of the latter would open the door for a retest of the 2021 year-to-date low at 0.7105.