AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Update, short position now risk free for 3R


  • AUD/NZD is in a bearish environment and p[rice has moved to breakeven.
  • AUD/NZD positioning data favours a longer-term bullish outlook.

AUD/NZD price action is behaving appropriately in accordance with the weekly and daily charts, and analysis represented in the original article which can be read here:

Original daily chart analysis

The market was expected to melt in a wave 3 to prior resistance structure. 

The set up was established on the 4-hour time frame. 

The market has moved to create a new resistance structure which is expected to protect the entry price.

The stop loss can be now moved to breakeven as follows:

As it stands, the trade is now risk-free and offers a risk to reward ratio of 0:3. 

However, according to CFTC positioning data ending 8 September, NZD has dropped some of its net-longs, with the trigger possibly having been the reiteration of RBNZ Governor Orr of his openness to further easing monetary policy.

While the spot market is a totally separate market to futures, the data at least supports a medium-term bullish view that fits the narrative of the longer-term charts.

A longterm analysis offers prospects to 1.1120 once the weekly correction is done.

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