AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Advances toward 61.8% Fibo around 1.1100 post a triangle breakout

The AUD/NZD pair has printed an intraday high of 1.1020 on expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will continue its policy-tightening spell ahead. RBA Governor Philip Lowe will continue hiking interest rates further amid the absence of inflation peak signs in the Australian economy.  

The RBA announced a fourth consecutive 25 bps interest rate hike on Tuesday to 3.35%. While addressing the nation, RBA Governor was very confident that Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) might decline to 4.75% this year and to around 3% by mid-2025, however, further monetary policy contraction cannot be ruled out.

AUD/NZD has delivered a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern formed on an eight-hour scale, which indicates an expansion in volatility and results in wider ticks and heavy volume. A breakout of the aforementioned chart pattern has pushed the cross above the 50% Fibonacci retracement (placed from September 28 high at 1.1490 to December 16 low at 1.0471) at 1.0984.

The upward-sloping trendline from December 16 low at 1.0471 will continue to act as a major support for the Australian Dollar. Also, the asset has scaled above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0953, which indicates that the short-term trend is bullish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has scaled into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates more upside ahead.

Should the cross breaks above November 11 high at 1.1045, Australian bulls will drive the cross toward the 61.8% Fibo retracement placed around 1.1100 followed by October 26 high around 1.1176.

On the contrary, a break below January 31 low at 1.0881 will drag the cross toward January 10 low around 1.0800. A slippage below the latter will extend the downside toward January 19 low at 1.0737.

AUD/NZD eight-hour chart