- AUD/NZD bears move in with a focus on the recent lows and eye 1.1050.
- The RBNZ and RBA are in focus with inflation the task at hand.
At 1.1068, the price is flat on the day but is moving below the US equities hours lows in Tokyo near 1.1075. This is an opening risk for a continuation to the downside for the day ahead. The kiwi is firmer in Asia as takes on the US session highs vs the US dollar near 0.6280, printing a high of 0.6274 so far.
New Zealand’s second-quarter Unemployment Rate came in a little higher than the markets were expecting, but in the view of analysts at ANZ Bank, it doesn’t matter for the monetary policy outlook.
''Flat employment growth despite still-high demand for labour suggests the economy has run out of labour resource to keep growing, and with wage inflation running higher than anyone was expecting, these data suggest pipeline domestic CPI inflation pressures are far too strong.''
''We think the data fans, rather than fades the case for OCR hikes, and in that regard, the Kiwi may find support from rising short-end rates over coming weeks. But going against that, US interest rates are also rising, and there’s been no let-up in hawkish Fed rhetoric, and for the time being, that is supporting a USD DXY bounce. US jobs data tomorrow night will be crucial; let’s see how that pans out.''
The analysts said that ''the risk of a wage-price spiral clearly isn’t any lower despite the small lift in the unemployment rate. In fact, with average hourly earnings growth at 7% y/y (vs Consumer Price Index inflation at 7.3%), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand should be very worried about high domestic inflation sticking around long after global inflation (ie tradables) has slowed.''
''One of the key takeaways for Australia is that NZ’s success has been underpinned by an incredibly tight labour market. Australia looks similar. While wages are yet to take off here in Australia, the tightness in the labour market raises the risk that we go down the same path as NZ.''
Despite the uncertainties, the Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to take any chances with inflation, analysts at Rabobank argued.
''It’s rhetoric is clear insofar as 'Board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time'.''
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops to 1.0550 ahead of PMIs, Powell
EUR/USD is in the red near 1.0550, having broken the Asian consolidation to the downside in the European session on Monday. The pair is weighed by a buoyant US Dollar amid higher US Treasury bond yields and a cautious mood. US ISM PMI and Powell's speech eyed.
GBP/USD struggles below 1.2200, awaits central banks' speakers
GBP/USD is trading below 1.2200, struggling to gain any meaningful traction in the European trading on Monday. The risk-on impulse is seen undermining the safe-haven USD and lending support to the major. US PMI, BoE and Fed speeches awaited.
Gold price consolidates near multi-month low, awaits US ISM PMI and Fed Chair Powell’s speech
Gold price continues losing ground for the sixth straight day and drops to a near seven-month low. Bets for further policy tightening by the Fed turn out to be a key factor weighing on the “XAU/USD”.
Week ahead: Fed speech and NFP likely to dictate crypto market moves this week
With the start of 2023’s fourth quarter, things are finally getting interesting in crypto. While the next 12 weeks are extremely important, let’s start by focusing on what to expect this week.
ISM Manufacturing PMI Preview: Worst for US factory activity could be over
The ISM will publish the United States September Manufacturing PMI today. The index is expected to have ticked modestly higher to 47.7 from its previous monthly reading of 47.6.