AUD/JPY flirts with weekly bottom near 83.00 ahead of China PMI data


  • AUD/JPY bears take a breather, following the heaviest drop in a week, near the lowest level since June 22.
  • Market sentiment dwindles amid mixed signals from Fed, covid woes in Asia-Pacific and strong US data.
  • China NBS Manufacturing PMI for June will be the key in Asia, macros keep the driver’s seat.

AUD/JPY defends the 83.00 threshold amid a subdued Asian morning on Wednesday. The cross-currency pair marked a two-day downtrend by the end of Tuesday by refreshing the weekly low amid Australia’s coronavirus (COVID-19) woes and sluggish market sentiment. The latest consolidation could be linked to the anxiety ahead of the key data from Australia’s biggest customer China.

With nearly 4.0% of fully vaccinated Australians risking a widespread infection of the Delta covid variant, Aussie policymakers have announced activity restrictions covering around 80% of the national population. Even so, the government has been criticized on the grounds of inoculations and is tracing more clues of the pandemic, recently found one in Queensland.

The virus resurgence also probes economies in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, not to forget South Africa and Brazil, with slower jabbing be the key risk.

Elsewhere, strong US consumer sentiment and housing data seemed to have backed the Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s hawkish comments on the Bloomberg TV interview. “In favor of tapering MBS before Treasuries, tapering MBS is an easier sell to the public as the housing market is hot,” said Weller per Reuters.

It’s worth observing that the US 10-year Treasury yields and Wall Street benchmarks have turned sluggish of late as traders await China’s June month PMI data as well as an early signal of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), namely US ADP Employment Change.

While forecasts suggest another downbeat figure from Beijing, likely weighing on the AUD/JPY prices, any upside surprises may help consolidate the latest losses.

Read: ADP Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Going contrarian? How to trade this leading indicator

Other than the data from the US and China, Japan’s covid woes and challenges to the BOJ’s easy money policy may also direct short-term AUD/JPY moves. However, major attention will be given to Friday’s US NFP as markets brace for Fed’s monetary policy adjustments.

Technical analysis

AUD/JPY remains directed to the 83.30 horizontal support, comprising multiple levels since mid-February, unless crossing the 100-day SMA surrounding 83.95, also the previous week’s top near 84.25. 

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price 83.04
Today Daily Change -0.68
Today Daily Change % -0.81%
Today daily open 83.72
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 84.23
Daily SMA50 84.4
Daily SMA100 83.9
Daily SMA200 80.61
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 84.2
Previous Daily Low 83.6
Previous Weekly High 84.26
Previous Weekly Low 82.14
Previous Monthly High 85.8
Previous Monthly Low 83.93
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 83.82
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 83.97
Daily Pivot Point S1 83.48
Daily Pivot Point S2 83.24
Daily Pivot Point S3 82.88
Daily Pivot Point R1 84.08
Daily Pivot Point R2 84.44
Daily Pivot Point R3 84.68

 

 

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