Apple Stock News and Forecast: AAPL delivers new iPhone 14

Apple (AAPL) unveiled updates to its product lineup on Wednesday in what is always a highly anticipated event. The main focus from investors is naturally on the new iPhone 14 as this is the main revenue driver but Apple also unveiled updates/new versions of its Apple Watch and Airpods. 

Apple stock news

The new iPhone 14 has a host of additional features and a longer battery life than most previous models. It also uses satellite communication for emergency use. The new models start at $799 and $899 for the iPhone 14 Plus. The higher level iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max will retail at $999 and $1,099, respectively.

US and Chinese prices for the new iPhone 14 are largely the same as for the iPhone 13. Prices in other regions have risen with parts of Europe seeing higher prices along with Australia and Japan.

All new iPhone 14 models will be available to order on September 9. Apple stock closed the day higher on Wednesday at $155.96 for a gain of just under 1%. This was a near 1% underperformance versus the main indices. While the unveiling of the new products was impressive, questions remain around Apple's ability to get production in China to run smoothly. With the latest announcement of further lockdowns in the Chengdu area, it appears Foxconn, one of Apple's main suppliers, is affected. At least there is some silver lining, because as far as we are aware only iPads are assembled at Foxconn's factory in this region. The iPhone is the main revenue generator as mentioned.

Apple stock forecast

The massive summer rally is still unwinding. Apple stock rallied over 30% from the June lows. It then failed at the top trend line and was also overbought on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). It has since retraced below the 200-day moving average and the 50-day. The next major support area is around $150 with a high volume zone as well as some significant old lows (March 14) and highs (June 1). Below, the 200-day keeps the stock bearish and is the medium-term pivot point. The recent surge in the value of the dollar is another headwind for Apple. Apple generates over 60% of its revenue outside the US. 

My short thesis is based on the strong dollar but also weakening demand. Europe is about to enter a deep recession with rising interest rates to exacerbate it. The US, meanwhile, is in a better position but also likely to see falling demand. The only outlier I see is monetary easing in China, which could juice demand.

AAPL daily chart

The author is short Apple stock.