Apple Stock Price and Forecast: Why is AAPL stock falling?

Apple (AAPL) shares fell sharply on Tuesday as a lackluster September continues, with many thankful that this is the last week of that bearish month. This Friday marks the end of September and also a quarter-end, which can see some unusual movements as fund managers position themselves going into the final quarter of the year. Many that are ahead of the benchmark will become more cautious as the year-end approaches.

Apple has struggled along with other tech names as the Nasdaq takes a disproportionate share of the pain from an equity market sell-off. The latest worry factor is rising rates, but really the market wanted to sell off. This is just the excuse it needed. It should not come as too much of a surprise given how stretched things had become, and indeed a gradual pullback is healthy. Just as forest fires are needed to clear out space for growth, so too pullbacks clear out space for new investment. 

AAPL fell over 2% on Tuesday and is now getting closer to our point of support (in the mid $130s in case you're asking). News of supply chain disruptions in Asia has not helped the stock despite pre-orders for the new iPhone looking very strong. Not much point in having pre-orders if you cannot follow through quickly! This is a constant theme over the last six months and is not specific to Apple. Reports again this morning from Nikkei Asia suggest further supply issues in Vietnam due to Covid, and The Financial Times carries an article about Apple and Tesla supply chains having issues in Asia.

Apple key statistics

Market Cap	$2.3 trillion
Enterprise Value	$2.3 trillion
Price/Earnings (P/E)	29
Price/Book	38
Price/Sales	9
Gross Margin	41%
Net Margin	25%
EBITDA	$112 billion
52 week low	$103.10
52 week high	$157.26
Average Wall Street rating and price target	Buy $166.7

Apple stock forecast

We now have to turn bearish on the stock as Tuesday's session saw our support at $144.50 give way. The only savior is that $141.67 held as volume really thins out below this level, meaning a price drop could really get going. A retracement or bounce on Wednesday would not be too surprising, and this can even be used to reestablish a short position at $144.50 with a tight stop above. All momentum indicators are pointing lower with price, and we can see the volume gap clearly on the daily chart below. Once we get below $141.67, then lookout. $134 is where support kicks in with a lot of volume, as evidenced by the volume profile bars and the yearly Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) sitting at $134.15

FXStreet view: Bearish, neutral above $144.50.

FXStreet Ideas: Short a pullback to $144.50. Buy a short-dated put on a break of $141.67 as we expect volatility to rise.