All-Japan core CPI to rise 0.4% y-y in June - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura forecast the all-Japan core CPI (all items excluding fresh food) to rise 0.4% y-y in June, the same rise as in May.

Key Quotes

“While we expect a boost from energy prices, we also look for a negative contribution from the core component, owing to a fall in the prices of accommodation and overseas package tours. We forecast a 0.3% y-y decline in the June all-Japan core CPI (all items excluding energy and food, except alcoholic beverages), which would mark a steeper drop than the 0.2% fall in May. For the all Japan CPI excluding fresh food and energy (the BOJ's core inflation metric) we forecast a 0.1% decline, versus a 0.0% change in May.” 

“We forecast a 0.0% y-y change in July core inflation in the Tokyo area, the same rate of growth as in June. We expect the rebound in energy prices to continue to support core inflation. Moreover, for July we forecast Tokyo area core inflation of -0.4%, and Tokyo area inflation excluding fresh food and energy (BOJ core inflation) of -0.2%, in both cases unchanged from June levels.”