ADP Employment beats expectations, provides positive Non-Farm Payroll signal

ADP Employment report prints 195k job growth, beats 149k forecast.
Strong positive signal for Non-Farm Payrolls figure, could offset negatives from consumers and manufacturers.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI yet to be released, will provide last meaningful signal.

Jordi Martínez FXStreet

The ADP Employment Report printed gains of 195k jobs for the month of August, beating the 149k figure expected. This is a strong positive signal for Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls as, according to our NFP Crash Course, "the ADP report is the harbinger of the NFP, because of the existent correlation between the two". EUR/USD barely reacted to the news though, falling just around 10 pips on the release.

The positive signal showed by this figure, based on the private payroll report, could offset the negatives shown by big consumer and manufacturing business surveys in the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

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Other NFP leading indicators of less significance were just released, with the Challenger Job Cuts report showing a notable increased in the number of corporate layoffs (53.480k in August after just 38.845k in July) and the Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims figures staying stable around 215k and 1.7 million each one.

All in all, the NFP leading indicator table looks quite mixed with just one (but big) release to get: the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which should provide a strong signal, as the service sector is the biggest in the United States economy, will be published later on at 14 GMT.

US jobs report pre-release checklist – Sep 6th, 2019

Previous Non-Farm Payrolls	Neutral	Matched expectations at 164K jobs added.
Challenger Job Cuts	Negative	Number of corporate layoffs increased notably in August from 38.845K to 53.480K.
Initial Jobless Claims	Neutral	4-week average of the first-time unemployment claimants is stable around 215K, very close to multi-year lows.
Continuing Jobless Claims	Neutral	Number of people filing for unemployment benefits continues to be quite stable around 1.7 million, also close to multi-year lows.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	-	Expected to be released on Thu, Sept 5th at 14 GMT.
ISM Manufacturing PMI	Negative	Falling from 51.7 in July to 47.4 in August is a big disappointment on the Employment Index of the very important manufacturing business survey.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index	Negative	UMich consumer survey plunged below 90 in August, falling nearly 10 points in one month, an awful reading.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index	Positive	The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® stayed at higher-than-135 levels in August, a better-than-expected number.
ADP Employment Report	Positive	Private employment report showed a pick up on job creation in August, adding 195K (much better than 149K expected).
JOLTS Job Openings	Positive	Job openings beat expectations in June, printing 7.348 million above the 7.317 million expected. Revised figure for May was also bullish.

Author

Jordi Martínez

FXStreet

Jordi Martínez is the Editor in Chief at FXStreet, leading editorial operations at the company, before being promoted to the role in 2023, he worked in several editorial positions at FXStreet, including roles as Senior

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