Reaction to news events in foreign exchange trading is driven by expectations. A headline result that is above expectations leads to strength in the respective currency, while a headline result that is weaker than estimations results in a weakening of the respective currency.
Unfortunately, life isn’t that easy and there two general exceptions that traders should be aware of.
The Risk Factor
First, the US indicators tended to produce the opposite result for the dollar. The reason was the risk on / risk off mentality, whereas a weaker than expected US indicator leads to a strong US dollar (and a stronger Japanese yen).
The explanation is that a weaker US will lead the world down, and therefore, it is better to fly to safety – the safety of the US dollar. And when indicators exceed expectations, the world is set to improve as a whole, and no safety is needed and the dollar is sold. Risk is sought after.
This kind of behavior was seen for long periods of time in the period after the financial crisis. However, the never ending expectations for QE3 resulted in a return to “normal” behavior. Weak data raised QE3 expectations. Creating more dollars to buy bonds weakens the US dollar. And positive figures lowered the chances, strengthening the dollar.
If QE3 turns into reality (even though the Fed could take a different path), the question of QE3 will not exist anymore. So before QE4 will loom, we could see a swift return to the “abnormal” behavior.
Sell the Fact
The second exception is usually seen on a big event that has fewer possible results: an event such as a rate decision, where there is usually one main scenario. Of course, high expectations that don’t materialize lead to a disappointment. This is a natural fact of life.
There is another scenario, where high expectations do materialize. However, these expectations were priced in or even “over priced in” that any result leads to a sell off. This is often dubbed “buy the rumor, sell the fact”, and is relevant also when the event isn’t a rumor but a well-known scheduled and thoroughly debated event.
For example, a future rate cut in Australia may result in a rally for the Australian dollar if this event would be priced in. This is despite the usual behavior of a rate cut hurting the respective currency and despite reality meeting expectations.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends its optimism past 1.1900
EUR/USD retains a firm underlying bid, surpassing the 1.1900 mark as the NA session draws to a close on Monday. The pair’s persistent uptrend comes as the US Dollar remains on the defensive, with traders staying cautious ahead of upcoming US NFP prints and CPI data.
GBP/USD hits three-day peaks, targets 1.3700
GBP/USD is clocking decent gains at the start of the week, advancing to three-day highs near 1.3670 and building on Friday’s solid performance. The better tone in the British Pound comes on the back of the intense sekk-off in the Greenback and despite re-emerging signs of a fresh government crisis in the UK.
USD/JPY bounces off lows, back above 156.00
USD/JPY is starting the week markedly on the defensive, sliding back toward the 155.50 area where it has met some decent contention for now. The move lower in spot follows FX intervention chatter after PM S. Takaichi scored a landslide win in Sunday’s election..
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD gets ready to punch through 0.7100
The intense sell-off in the Greenback underpins the solid performance of the Aussie Dollar on Monday, motivating AUD/USD to add to recent gains while challenging the key 0.7100 barrier, or fresh YTD highs, at the same time.
EUR/USD extends its optimism past 1.1900
EUR/USD retains a firm underlying bid, surpassing the 1.1900 mark as the NA session draws to a close on Monday. The pair’s persistent uptrend comes as the US Dollar remains on the defensive, with traders staying cautious ahead of upcoming US NFP prints and CPI data.
Gold picks up pace, retargets $5,100
Gold gathers fresh steam, challenging daily highs en route to the $5,100 mark per troy ounce in the latter part of Monday’s session. The precious metal finds support from fresh signs of continued buying by the PBoC, while expectations that the Fed could lean more dovish also collaborate with the uptick.
XRP struggles around $1.40 despite institutional inflows
Ripple (XRP) is extending its intraday decline to around $1.40 at the time of writing on Monday amid growing pressure from the retail market and risk-off sentiment that continues to keep investors on the sidelines.
Japanese PM Takaichi nabs unprecedented victory – US data eyed this week
I do not think I would be exaggerating to say that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap general election gamble paid off over the weekend – and then some. This secured the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) an unprecedented mandate just three months into her tenure.
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