How does Option Expiration affect the Forex market?
Option expiration is one of those things that a lot people struggle with. It is because they see them coming through the feeds, they see that there's an option expiration on certain currency pair at a certain price yet they do not know how to trade that. So how can you make pips from an option expiration?
The whole concept of option expiration is a complicated one. It is very difficult to predict whether an option expiration is going to push the market up or push the market down. Partly this is because you need to know various strike prices for certain options. Basically, only when you know whether the strike price is above or below the price you can expect whether or not traders are going to exercise those options and buy or sell that currency pair.
However, very often an option expiration of a certain price will act almost like a magnet. For example, if you got an option expiration of a billion on EUR/USD at 1.10 the price will tend to gravitate around 1.10. It might come up maybe beyond 1.10 a little bit but most likely it will eventually come back down. In a way it will just hover around option expiration price until the time of the cut.
Obviously, the whole answer to the question is complicated. It involves strike prices and calls and whether or not trades are going to be exercising those options. This kind of information, as I said, is very difficult to get hold of. But the simple way of trading this is understanding that really big expiry orders (I'm talking maybe over $600 million to a billion to $2 billion to $3 billion) tend to act like a magnet to the price. With this information on its own you can make some pips. It could help you to scout the pair range, trade that pair up or of that level.
To sum up, it is quite useful information but it is not really something to make a trading strategy out of.
That is how the option expiration affect the Forex market. Hopefully you can use that information, even if it is a tiny bit of an information, in order to make some pips.
At no time should anyone view the information presented anywhere on this website as advice, recommendation or proven. Everything reflected is merely opinion and may not be accurate. The purpose of the site is to express the opinions and views of Jarratt Davis. There is no intention to offer specific help, advice or suggestions to anyone reading any of the content posted here.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD keeps the rangebound trade near 1.1850
EUR/USD is still under pressure, drifting back towards the 1.1850 area as Monday’s session draws to a close. The modest decline in spot comes as the US Dollar picks up a bit of support, while thin liquidity and muted volatility, thanks to the US market holiday, are exaggerating price swings and keeping trading conditions choppy.
GBP/USD flirts with daily lows near 1.3630
GBP/USD has quickly given back Friday’s solid gains, turning lower at the start of the week and drifting back towards the 1.3630 area. The focus now shifts squarely to Tuesday’s UK labour market report, which is likely to keep the quid firmly in the spotlight and could set the tone for Cable’s next move.
USD/JPY advances on weak Japanese GDP, holiday-thinned trading
USD/JPY rises while US and Japanese markets remain closed for holidays. Weak Japanese Gross Domestic Product figures curb tightening expectations. Investors await speeches from Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision.
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD retargets 0.7100 ahead of RBA Minutes
AUD/USD keeps the slightly bid bias around 0.7070 ahead of the opening bell in Asia. Indeed, the pair reverses two daily pullbacks in a row, meeting some initial contention around 0.7050 while investors gear up for the release of the RBA Minutes early on Tuesday.
EUR/USD keeps the rangebound trade near 1.1850
EUR/USD is still under pressure, drifting back towards the 1.1850 area as Monday’s session draws to a close. The modest decline in spot comes as the US Dollar picks up a bit of support, while thin liquidity and muted volatility, thanks to the US market holiday, are exaggerating price swings and keeping trading conditions choppy.
Gold battle around $5,000 continues
Gold is giving back part of Friday’s sharp rebound, deflating below the key $5,000 mark per troy ounce as the new week gets underway. Modest gains in the US Dollar are keeping the metal in check, while thin trading conditions, due to the Presidents Day holiday in the US, are adding to the choppy and hesitant tone across markets.
AI Crypto Update: Bittensor eyes breakout as AI tokens falter
The artificial intelligence (AI) cryptocurrency segment is witnessing heightened volatility, with top tokens such as Near Protocol (NEAR) struggling to gain traction amid the persistent decline in January and February.
The week ahead: Key inflation readings and why the AI trade could be overdone
It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day. European markets are higher across the board and gold is clinging to the $5,000 level after the tamer than expected CPI report in the US reduced haven flows to precious metals.
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