Regional Overview
Macro, FX & Rates: CE GDP growth slows down
(CZ) In line with our expectations, economic growth slowed down considerably in the third quarter to 1.9% Y/Y (from 2.6% in the 2nd quarter) and 0.3% Q/Q (from 0.9%). Although details have not been published yet, we believe growth has this time been driven primarily by households’ consumption and external demand. Investments remains rather weak as public investment declined. In spite of the fact that lagged behind expectations of the central bank, we do not expect it will have impact on timing of exit from the intervention regime. As for the outlook, we still keep our estimate of 2.5% GDP growth for both 2016 and 2017.
(HU) GDP growth reached 2% Y/Y in the 3rd quarter as expected. GDP was mainly supported by services and agriculture activity. However, the 2% growth means a significant deceleration compared to the 2.6% increase in the 2nd quarter.
(PL) GDP growth in the third quarter surprised negatively as it came out at 2.5% which is the worst result in three years. Similarly to the case of Czech Republic, decline in investment has probably weighed on growth.
Equities: O2CR amends buy-back rules
(CZ) O2CR: Board of Directors approved amendments to the rules of the purchase of own shares (share buy-back) as approved by the General Meeting on December 8, 2015 as a result of expected increase in liquidity in the market following the announcement of the3 MSCI Czech Republic Index composition. During the period of increased market liquidity until November 30, 2016 the company may carry out trades on the regulated market in larger volume than the volume limit set for the current share buy-back program as approved by the Board of Directors on December 23, 2015. / POSITIVE. Just to remind that Company has approved buyback in total amount of up to 10% of the total number of shares with 2% to be purchased within next two years (as of end Sep 16, Company has already purchased 0.89% of shares). Total amount for 5Y period stands at up to CZK 8bn for a price ranging from CZK 10 to CZK 297 with 130 525 shares purchases daily at maximum.
(PL) Energa: Company netted PLN 190mln in 3Q16, slightly higher than expected at PLN 184mln while matching its EBITDA at PLN 439mln with preliminaries published in October. Results registered y/y decline across the segments with the main hit coming from generation as a result of low electricity prices. Core segment of regulated distribution suffered 3.5% drop in EBITDA in 3Q16 with distribution volumes down by 2% y/y. Generation suffered 60% drop in EBITDA with volumes in renewables down significantly following regulatory changes. /NEGATIVE. At first glance, Energa beat the market due to low margin sales growth. We expect negative market reaction.
LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (%) | |
EURCZK | 27.03 | 27.03 | -0.01 |
EURHUF | 309.8 | 310.9 | -0.34 |
EURPLN | 4.407 | 4.428 | -0.46 |
LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (bps) | |
CZGB 10Y | 0.594 | 0.596 | -0.2 |
HUGB 10Y | 3.50 | 3.53 | -0.9 |
PLGB 10Y | 3.49 | 3.49 | 0.0 |
LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (%) | |
PX | 905.1 | 905.1 | 0.00 |
BUX | 30123 | 30123 | 0.00 |
WIG | 47540 | 47540 | 0.00 |
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD failed just ahead of the 200-day SMA
Finally, AUD/USD managed to break above the 0.6500 barrier on Wednesday, extending the weekly recovery, although its advance faltered just ahead of the 0.6530 region, where the key 200-day SMA sits.
EUR/USD met some decent resistance above 1.0700
EUR/USD remained unable to gather extra upside traction and surpass the 1.0700 hurdle in a convincing fashion on Wednesday, instead giving away part of the weekly gains against the backdrop of a decent bounce in the Dollar.
Gold keeps consolidating ahead of US first-tier figures
Gold finds it difficult to stage a rebound midweek following Monday's sharp decline but manages to hold above $2,300. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the green above 4.6% after US data, not allowing the pair to turn north.
Bitcoin price could be primed for correction as bearish activity grows near $66K area
Bitcoin (BTC) price managed to maintain a northbound trajectory after the April 20 halving, despite bold assertions by analysts that the event would be a “sell the news” situation. However, after four days of strength, the tables could be turning as a dark cloud now hovers above BTC price.
Bank of Japan's predicament: The BOJ is trapped
In this special edition of TradeGATEHub Live Trading, we're joined by guest speaker Tavi @TaviCosta, who shares his insights on the Bank of Japan's current predicament, stating, 'The BOJ is Trapped.'
RECOMMENDED LESSONS
Making money in forex is easy if you know how the bankers trade!
Discover how to make money in forex is easy if you know how the bankers trade!
5 Forex News Events You Need To Know
In the fast moving world of currency markets, it is extremely important for new traders to know the list of important forex news...
Top 10 Chart Patterns Every Trader Should Know
Chart patterns are one of the most effective trading tools for a trader. They are pure price-action, and form on the basis of underlying buying and...
7 Ways to Avoid Forex Scams
The forex industry is recently seeing more and more scams. Here are 7 ways to avoid losing your money in such scams: Forex scams are becoming frequent. Michael Greenberg reports on luxurious expenses, including a submarine bought from the money taken from forex traders. Here’s another report of a forex fraud. So, how can we avoid falling in such forex scams?
What Are the 10 Fatal Mistakes Traders Make
Trading is exciting. Trading is hard. Trading is extremely hard. Some say that it takes more than 10,000 hours to master. Others believe that trading is the way to quick riches. They might be both wrong. What is important to know that no matter how experienced you are, mistakes will be part of the trading process.