No, this isn’t an article about weight loss! It is more about preventing financial loss. As traders we often rely in technical indicators for signals to help identify turning points in the prices of both the markets and our stocks. In fact, many people rely on them as the basis for their software to tell them when to buy or sell. There is a major problem with trading in only this manner. While it is true that a signal from a technical indicator can foretell a reversal in price, it can also signal a pause in price before resumption of trend. Additionally, these signals usually appear after the turn in price. They are late and if you wait for them you are missing out on the best entry price for the security. A trader who solely relies on those signals for their trading decisions will often take trades that are stopped out for a loss.
So what should a trader do? Obviously they need to look at supply and demand and price action as a major decision maker for trading or investing. If you are a regular reader of these articles, you will know how successful traders like Sam Seiden, Gabe Velasquez, Sam Evans, Don Dawson, and others emphasize using the levels rather than indicators for decision making.
When most think of the market trends, they tend to think of only two directions, up or down. However there is another direction the markets can take and that is sideways. Imagine if you were in the lobby of a 40 story building with no elevator. Now, if I told you that there was 1 crore Rupees in a briefcase at the top of the building that you could have if you climbed the stairs, what would you do? Of course you would start climbing! Most of us would tire at some point and need to rest. Would you stop climbing and go down stairs to rest? Of course you wouldn’t. You would stay at the highest level you had reached and wait until you gathered strength to resume climbing.
Prices will often move sideways in a strong trend for a rest as well. Prices rise due to aggressive buyers pushing prices higher. When prices have risen too high, many potential buyers will back away as price has become too expensive. When they see that no one is selling to make the price cheaper, they will resume in the buying for fear that they will miss out on profits. This pause will cause many traders who are already in the stock to book profits too early for fear of a reversal that never comes. It may also tempt traders into unwarranted shorts as they try to pick the top of the markets.
Watch the price action as you come away from those overbought/oversold situations. Prices may simply pause and move sideways at those areas in order to work off the indication and allow more traders to enter into the trend. As with real estate, they key is location. An overbought indication at supply is one to heed as is an oversold at strong demand. Other indications may be false and lead to overtrading.
So use the indicators as they are intended, as a decision support tool for your trading on supply and demand. To learn more, attend a course at the Online Trading Academy center nearest you. Until next week, trade safe and trade well!
Neither Freedom Management Partners nor any of its personnel are registered broker-dealers or investment advisers. I will mention that I consider certain securities or positions to be good candidates for the types of strategies we are discussing or illustrating. Because I consider the securities or positions appropriate to the discussion or for illustration purposes does not mean that I am telling you to trade the strategies or securities. Keep in mind that we are not providing you with recommendations or personalized advice about your trading activities. The information we are providing is not tailored to any individual. Any mention of a particular security is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security or a suggestion that it is suitable for any specific person. Keep in mind that all trading involves a risk of loss, and this will always be the situation, regardless of whether we are discussing strategies that are intended to limit risk. Also, Freedom Management Partners’ personnel are not subject to trading restrictions. I and others at Freedom Management Partners could have a position in a security or initiate a position in a security at any time.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.
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