One of the toughest obstacles a new trader faces in becoming profitable is staying objective about what the market is telling them. Staying objective means being able to change one’s mind when the market environment clearly indicates our assessment of the direction of the market is wrong. That’s only one aspect of being objective, the other, and most important part of being a trader with an objective mindset, is having the flexibility to act upon the new information presented.
Traders come into the markets with lots of preconceived notions and beliefs. Among these are inherent biases that can act as impediments to making the right trading decisions. Of these biases, the strongest is something psychologists refer to as a “confirmation bias.” This is a natural tendency of all human beings and can be a benefit in other areas of life, but can pose a challenge in trading.
Simply, we as humans have to protect our ego, this entails always trying our best to make the right decisions. In every day life this works most of the time, however, because speculating in the financial markets is fraught with uncertainty, and this is something we have little control over, it becomes a challenging aspect of the human condition that has a negative effect on trading.
The way the human mind works is that, after all the analysis and thinking we ultimately come to a decision. Once that decision is made and the action taken, we must vigorously defend that it was the right decision. We do that by seeking out every piece of information that will validate that, indeed we have made the right decision. In addition, (and here is where the difficulty lies) we will dismiss or ignore altogether any information that contradicts our decision. These can sometimes lead to devastating consequences, as it allows us to rationalize staying in a losing trade.
Staying objective becomes more difficult when we have a position in a particular market . For instance, talk to a trader that is long 5 E-mini S&P contracts and he will give you 100 reasons why the market will go up. When we put on trades, we obviously never put it on intending to lose, however, staying open to the possibilities that we will be wrong sometimes will free up our mind to focus on executing the strategy rather than worrying about being right all the time.
Most traders and investors tend to have a buy-side bias because they have money invested in the market for retirement or other long-term goals. Moreover, this bias is also a product of them not being educated or skilled in short selling. Thus, knowing that they buy now with the hope that they will sell higher at a later date is the preferred trade. For these traders and investors all the warning signs of a potential sell- off in the markets often tend be ignored until it becomes too late.
Staying objective means that no matter how strongly you feel about a company or market, when the market tells you differently you will heed the warning signs and react accordingly. When it comes to successful market speculation, being rigid in our thinking will lead to bad results in the long term. Alternatively, being flexible in our thinking is a key element for survival in an environment where you always have to expect the unexpected.
Until next time, I hope everyone has a great week.
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Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY gathers strength to near 157.50 as Takaichi’s party wins snap elections
The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers to around 157.45 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Japanese Yen weakens against the US Dollar after Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party won an outright majority in Sunday’s lower house election, opening the door to more fiscal stimulus by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates
Unimpressive European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. The United States first-tier employment and inflation data is scheduled for the second week of February. EUR/USD battles to remain afloat above 1.1800, sellers moving to the sidelines.
Gold: Volatility persists in commodity space
After losing more than 8% to end the previous week, Gold remained under heavy selling pressure on Monday and dropped toward $4,400. Although XAU/USD staged a decisive rebound afterward, it failed to stabilize above $5,000. The US economic calendar will feature Nonfarm Payrolls and Consumer Price Index data for January, which could influence the market pricing of the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and impact Gold’s performance.
Week ahead: US NFP and CPI data to shake Fed cut bets, Japan election looms
US NFP and CPI data awaited after Warsh’s nomination as Fed chief. Yen traders lock gaze on Sunday’s snap election. UK and Eurozone Q4 GDP data also on the agenda. China CPI and PPI could reveal more weakness in domestic demand.
Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election Premium
The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.
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