What challenges could hinder Bitcoin’s recovery in November?

Bitcoin (BTC) has yet to recover from the historic crash on October 11 fully. Although its price has rebounded from below $99,000 to over $100,000, several factors are holding it back this November.

What are these factors, and how might they affect the market? Here’s a closer look.

Weak Iinstitutional demand reflected in coinbase premium

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained negative throughout November, highlighting a clear lack of enthusiasm from US institutions and investors.

This index measures the price difference between Bitcoin traded on Coinbase, a leading US exchange, and the global market average.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. Source: Coinglass.

During the same period when the index stayed negative, Bitcoin’s price dropped from $110K to $100K in the first two weeks of November. This shows that the influence of US investors remains significant.

Analyst Ted Pillows warned that if the index fails to turn positive after the potential end of the US government shutdown, it could be a bearish signal for BTC’s recovery.

“Polymarket odds show that the US government shutdown could end on November 14. I'm watching the Coinbase Bitcoin premium closely after the US market opens. If it doesn’t turn positive today or tomorrow, that’ll be perceived as a bad sign for $BTC,” Ted said.

Bitcoin ETF outflows show unusual weakness

Bitcoin ETF inflows have weakened sharply in November.

According to SoSoValue, these ETFs have seen nearly $2 billion in outflows over the past two weeks. The last time such a large two-week outflow occurred—in February 2025—Bitcoin fell over 25% and took two months to recover its momentum.

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow. Source: SoSoValue.

SoSoValue’s chart shows multiple billion-dollar red bars since August, indicating that selling pressure began to build last quarter.

Long-term holders begin to move old coins

On-chain data shows that long-term holders are moving coins, signaling a shift in sentiment toward profit-taking.

A report from CheckOnChain revealed that more than 28,900 BTC aged over 65 months were moved on-chain last weekend, including approximately 10,000 BTC held for over two years.

Revived Supply Breakdown by Age. Source: CheckOnChain

Another report from CryptoQuant confirmed that in November, transfers from old Bitcoin wallets (holding BTC for 3–10 years) to Binance reached the highest level since July, suggesting a potential influx of new supply into the market.

“When these coins move, it usually signals a turning point—either the beginning of a broader correction or institutional repositioning for a new cycle,” Arab Chain, an analyst at CryptoQuant, noted.

These three headwinds may prevent Bitcoin from setting new highs before the end of the year. However, holding above the psychological $100,000 mark remains a key strength.

This resilience suggests that, despite selling pressure, buyers continue to maintain confidence in higher prices—especially as multiple macroeconomic signals indicate a potential wave of new liquidity entering the market.