Uniswap Price Analysis: UNI could be near a significant decline

Uniswap price is spiking, putting UNI in the top-ten performing cryptocurrencies today with a 13% gain. Moreover, the SuperTrend indicator has registered a buy signal. These are bullish developments, but they could be just background noise to a larger bearish pattern unfolding.

Uniswap price advance today could be a fake-out

Uniswap has been a highlight in the cryptocurrency space in 2021 after climbing almost 600%. The price action during this March decline has been corrective, but the volume trend since the February low has been declining, showing a lack of commitment. Even with today’s massive gain, the daily volume is running at a third of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). 

Standing front and center on the charts is a developing ascending wedge. It could just be a correction in a dominant uptrend, or conversely, it could be an alert that a major top is about to be printed. If it is an ascending wedge and based on a rough pattern projection, Uniswap price should briefly make a new high around $36.53 before reverting downwards. 

Alternatively, Uniswap price could continue to drift higher, making marginal new highs until mid-April when the pattern reaches its apex, which coincides with the 1.382 extension level of the February crash at $38.65.

As drawn on the chart below, initial support is at the lower trendline at $31.63, and if it fails to entice buyers, UNI could collapse to the 50-day SMA, which would be around $26.20. The next significant support does not emerge until the February 23 low at $18.20.

UNI/USD daily chart

The chart’s bias is tilted to the downside. Still, if the wedge does resolve to the upside, the potential gains will be limited to a test of the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $42.15, representing a 24% gain from the current price. 

The reward exceeds the risk in the short-term, but the risk is much more significant from a macro perspective.