Bitcoin consolidates as downside risks persist

Bitcoin has made only three wave rallies from the November lows, which is one of the most important indications that more weakness may still lie ahead. Due to the holidays, it is not surprising that price is currently trapped in a range, and based on the latest price action this could be forming a triangle in wave four. This is still a continuation pattern, but it may need another subwaves D and E before we can expect the next push lower, possibly in January. In that case, price could drop back toward the 80k area, or even lower, within an impulsive wave A that is clearly visible on the daily chart. The invalidation level is around 99k, and as long as the current wave structure trades below that level, traders should remain cautious and prepared for another leg down in the near future.

Big picture

Bitcoin may have completed a higher degree wave (V) of III within an ending diagonal / wedge pattern. Even cyclically, it found the top in October 2025, so be aware of a bear market now and higher degree wave IV correction.