- Daily range structures head for major crossroads.
- The process will be long and can go beyond the summer.
- The turn may bring an increase in volatility.
The week is coming to an end, and today I am going to focus on future developments from the current situation.
The market is tense after the falls of the last two days, some falls motivated by the exhaustion of short-term trends and the beginning of bullish dragging in the long term.
The moving averages in daily ranges clearly express the current situation. The 50-day exponential average shows an accelerated bullish profile that begins to flatten as it reaches the area where the 200-day simple average travels. This long-term average begins chopping horizontality after placing prices above it for the first time since the beginning of 2018.
This data is vital when considering future scenarios, but we must not be innocent and take for granted that the long winter is over and suddenly we have summer joy awaiting us. Things don't work this way.
In my opinion, the worst of winter was seen in the second week of December, but the transition to warmer, sunnier days will not be linear. This long-term change, will most likely not be defined until late summer.
The right thing for those who are clear that they want to see the market at its best is to maintain the attitude that has allowed them to spend the cold winter without capitulating. To keep a view of the calculated implication in the present time, clarity in the decisions and firmness to maintain them is essential.
ETH/BTC 1 Day Chart
The ETH/BTC crypto cross trades at the price level of 0.0325. The market manager crypto pair has dropped one level within the structure of the parallel bullish trend lines that shapes the current movement.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at 0.0333 (price congestion resistance), while the second resistance level is at 0.0341 (upper parallel trend line). The third resistance level for the ETH/BTC pair is at 0.0351 (price congestion resistance).
Below the current price, the first support level is at 0.0316 (price congestion support and lower parallel trendline). The second support level for the ETH/BTC pair is at 0.0301 (price congestion support). The third support level is at 0.0291 (price congestion support).
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The MACD in the daily range shows a very flat profile that is likely to cross upwards in the next few days. It moves through the negative zone of the indicator so that any bullish attempt will encounter resistance.
The DMI in the daily range shows bears above the bulls but within a sequence of constant leadership change. Both sides of the market move above the ADX line so that any severe attempt can gain speed quickly.
Do you want to know more about my technical setup?
BTC/USD 1 Day Chart
BTC/USD trades at $5,040, where it finds support at the base of the long term bearish side channel containing the price since February 2018.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $5,090 (price congestion resistance), while the second resistance level for the BTC/USD pair is at $5,500 (price congestion resistance and secondary base of the large bearish side channel). The ceiling for this long-term technical figure currently stands at $8,300.
Below the current price, the first support level is at $5,000 (base of the large downside channel), then the second support level is at $4,560 (price congestion support and SMA200) and the third support level for the BTC/USD pair is at $4,400 (price congestion support and EMA50).
The MACD on the daily chart shows a profile before a bearish cut. The typical pattern of this configuration is a bullish rebound before the final cut.
The DMI on the daily chart shows the bulls losing strength and falling below the ADX line. The bears react to the rise but still far from important levels. The typical development is a test of the ADX by the bulls.
ETH/USD 1 Day Chart
ETH/USD is trading at $163, remaining above the previous price range capped at $160. It is interesting to note that the moving averages structure is much more advanced in the case of ETH/USD than in BTC/USD. What happens in this pair could be extrapolated to the other pairs in the future.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $170 (price congestion resistance), then the second resistance level for the ETH/USD pair is at $180 (price congestion resistance). The third resistance level is at $190 (price congestion resistance).
Below the current price, the first support level is at $160 (price congestion support), then the second support level is at $155 (price congestion support). The third level of support for ETH/USD is a $150 confluence (price congestion support, EMA50, and SMA100).
The MACD on the daily chart shows a price profile at a bearish cut. The pattern advises a price rebound to the final bearish cut.
The DMI on the daily chart shows bulls losing momentum and below the ADX line. The bears react slightly to the bullish trend. The pattern that usually develops this type of structure is rebounding upwards.
XRP/USD 1 Day Chart
XRP/USD is currently trading at 0.321, moving back into the long term bearish channel. The decline has brought the XRP to the level of moving averages.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is $0.33 (price congestion resistance), then the second resistance level is $0.334 (price congestion resistance and bear channel ceiling). The third resistance level is at $0.344 (price congestion resistance).
Below the current price, the first support level is $0.32 (price congestion support and SMA100), then the second support level is $0.317 (price congestion support). The third level of support for the XRP/USD pair is $0.305 (price congestion support).
The MACD on the daily chart shows a full bearish cross with no bullish price rebound. The typical development is of bearish continuity, although I do not rule out a test of the upper linen of the bearish channel.
The DMI on the daily chart shows how bulls lose strength and are placed below the ADX line. The bears, on the other hand, react to the rise with force but do not reach the level considered as the existence of trend force. This configuration usually develops an ADX test, which in this case would cause a rebound to rise.
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