- ETH/USD continues to benefit from the Constantinople implementation.
- BTC/USD does not react and keeps the market in tension.
- XRP/USD has great challenges if it aspires to regain second place in the market.
A new year begins and with it, renewed expectations that the dominant bearish trend of 2018 will end soon.
Ethereum dominated the last weeks of the year, determined to regain the second place regarding capitalization. It achieves this objective in these early hours of the European market as ETH/USD jumped nearly 80% from lows.
The strength of Ethererum’s upward movement coincides with the upcoming launch of Constantinople, the Hard Fork that promises to improve the performance of the network. The market highly anticipates this implementation, due on January 16, and until then the money will continue to run to Ether.
Neither Bitcoin nor Ripple has yet managed to take advantage of the upward trend of their podium companion. Both have moved away from the 2018 lows, but fail to break critical levels that allow them to evolve in search of relative highs.
Do you want to know more about my technical setup?
BTC/USD Daily Chart
The daily BTC/USD range chart reflects the professional market’s doubts about whether the king's moment has arrived. While Bitcoin remains far from the 2018 lows, it remains stuck in the $3,600 to $4,300 range.
Neither side of the market seems to want to take the initiative. These early days of the year may be indicative of what the first quarter has in store if the first capital allocations by the specialized Hedge Funds in the Crypto market appear.
Above the current price, the first target for BTC/USD is at the price level of $3.925 (price congestion resistance). This level is vital because if BTC/USD breaks it, it will push against the EMA50 and we could start to see significant activity.
This exponential average is precisely the second obstacle to the rise in the BTC/USD list. It is at the price level of $4,188 (EMA50). The third resistance level is at $4,400 (price congestion resistance) and exceeding it would put Bitcoin in a position to escape the bearish scenario and return to a less harmful environment.
Below the current price, the risk levels of the 2018 lows continue to apply. Only one important support level separates the BTC/USD from reaching fresh lows. This support level is at the price level of $3.278 (price congestion support). A little below, the recent low of $3,126 is the price that would signal a new sell-off.
-636820232633757035.png)
The MACD in the daily range shows serious difficulties in breaking the 0 levels and entering a positive environment. This setup is a clear sign of weakness, and we will have to be attentive to its evolution in the following days. There is not much time margin to resolve this situation.
The DMI in the daily range shows a tie between bulls and bears. Both sides of the market move below the ADX line, which we can use as a signal line when one of the two breaks above the ADX.
ETH/USD Daily Chart
The ETH/USD is currently trading at the $148 price level, continuing the uptrend that began in mid-December. Ethereum is capitalizing on the launch of Constantinople, the next implementation that promises higher transaction speeds at a lower cost.
ETH/USD is heading towards the $155 price level (price congestion resistance). This level is important because above, it opens the space left by the bearish hole created on November 19, 2018. Even with the rise of the last few weeks, the ETH/USD will not be clearly bullish until it closes this gap when it reaches the $171 price level (price congestion resistance). To complicate matters a bit more, the simple average of a hundred periods moves at the $167 price level.
Below the current price, the first support level is at the EMA50 at $134. The second support level is at $125 (price congestion support). If the ETH/USD loses this price level, a fully bearish scenario would be triggered again. The third support level is at $95 (price congestion support).
Below the current price, the first support level is at $94.5 (price congestion support). The second support level is $80 (price congestion support and annual minimum). The third support level is $70 (price congestion support).
-636820233339885791.png)
The MACD in the daily range shows a favorable profile for the price. It already moves above the zero lines.
The DMI in the daily range shows bulls with a clear advantage over bears. The detail to keep in mind is that buyers do not manage to move above the ADX line, which weakens the potential of the bulls.
XRP/USD Daily Chart
The XRP/USD is currently trading at the $0.367 price level. Today, Ripple loses the second position regarding capitalization in favor of the Ethereum, which can favor sales by reversing the spread between them.
In the XRP/USD it is evident which bearish channel retains it, and equally, clear the level to beat to see a bullish explosion. That level is currently at $0.455.
Above the current price, the first resistance is at $0.377 (EMA50). Above this exponential average, the second resistance level is at $0.413 (price congestion resistance). Above this second resistance level, there is a very complex zone that reaches up to the level of $0.455, with three price congestion resistances the simple averages of both one hundred and two hundred periods.
Below the current price, the first support level is $0.345 (price congestion support). The second level of support is at $0.32 (price congestion support), in an area that can be considered potentially bearish. Finally, the third support level is below $0.30, namely $0.298 (price congestion support). This price level would favor the visit to the 2018 minimum levels around $0.25.
-636820234430404668.png)
The MACD in the daily range is moving on the positive side of the indicator, albeit only slightly. The slope is minimal, and the opening is also scarce. The profile is one of exhaustion and does not support further gains.
The DMI in the daily range shows bulls with a slight advantage over bears. The level of activity on both sides of the market is low, and both move below the ADX line. Overall, signs of weakness do not support nearby rises.
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