- The average price in 2021 could be around $100K.
- The scenario also proposes $40K in the least positive scenario.
- The market may need months before experiencing another bullish trend.
August kicks off and it is normally a month of high market volatility.
Wednesday’s macro news has been unable to alter any of the main scenarios for cryptocurrencies.
I am going to use the excuse of entering the classic holiday month to do a little work of price prediction for the next two-year cycle.
This type of projection is so advanced in time making it complicated from a technical point of view with a high degree of randomness.
BTC/USD has been governed for years by a trend line around which it orbits for a significant period of time.
The average price of this projection in 2021 is $100K, but we must keep in mind that the price can considerably deviate from this range without breaking the interrelationship.
As I have drawn on the chart, the high range would be around $430K, while the low range would be at the already discounted $40K.
Defining a future price range is relatively simple. But we cannot forget that volatility has a significant impact in the short term and can reach excessive levels of deviation from the average.
ETH/BTC Daily Chart
The ETH/BTC pair is currently trading at 0.0213 and remains at a level of agony that is dragging the Altcoins segment.
The structure of the moving averages indicates that the current scenario will still last several months. All three are inclined downwards, and if they ever decide to change direction, it will not be a quick process.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at 0.0221 (price congestion resistance), then the second at 0.023 (price congestion resistance) and the third one at 0.0245 (EMA50).
Below the current price, the first level of support is at 0.021 (price congestion support), then the second at 0.020 (price congestion support), and the third one at 0.0155 (double price congestion support).
The MACD on the daily chart loses both the openness between the lines and the bullish cross. The most likely development is a lateral movement until the lines come closer together – and there is a bullish rejection.
The DMI on the daily chart shows bears ready for another attempt to breach the ADX line, which would resume the bearish trend. The bulls are not convinced of their possibilities and continue to retreat – waiting for better moments.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
BTC/USD trades at $9,952 and rests directly on the EMA50. The upside moves are minimal and a more substantial move looks unlikely.
After Wednesday’s move, the indicators have reached crossing points, and the chances of rejection movements are significantly high.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $10,800 (price congestion resistance), then the second at $11,200 (price congestion resistance), and the third one at $14,000 (price congestion resistance and relative maximum).
Below the current price, the first level of support is at $9,650 (price congestion support), then the second at $9,150 (price congestion support) and the third one at $8,800 (price congestion support and SMA100).
The MACD on the daily chart has reached its bullish cross point on Wednesday. For now, the crossing is incomplete, and there will likely be a downward rejection movement.
The DMI on the daily chart also shows a crossing point, with the bulls fighting to take over back control now held by the bulls. Both sides of the market move above the ADX line, so they can accelerate the trend force without obstacles.
ETH/USD Daily Chart
ETH/USD is currently trading at $212.9 and has been in the same range since mid-July. The price moves between the SMA 100 and 200 periods. Both moving averages show upward inclination. On the other hand, the EMA50 follows the price quickly and is close to crossing down the SMA100 and opening a more complex scenario for the coming weeks.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $215 (price congestion resistance), then the second at $220 (price congestion resistance) and the third one at $235 (price congestion resistance, SMA100, and EMA50).
Below the current price, the first level of support is at $207 (price congestion support), then the second at $200 (price congestion support) and the third one at $195 (price congestion support).
The MACD on the daily chart maintains the bullish cross, although it fails to improve either the slope or the openness between the lines. It continues to show a very fragile structure.
The DMI on the daily chart shows bears losing strength and heading south clearly. The bulls do not have it so clear and remain at the same levels of recent weeks.
XRP/USD Daily Chart
XRP/USD is trading at $0.313 and is unable to overcome the double price congestion resistance of $0.32.
Above the current price beyond $0.32, the first resistance level is at $0.335 (price congestion resistance), then the second at $0.345 (price congestion resistance and SMA200) and the third one at $0.352 (EMA50).
Below the current price, the first level of support is at $0.308 (price congestion support), then the second level is at $0.30 (price congestion support), and the third level is at $0.296 (price congestion support).
The MACD on the daily chart shows a bullish cross, even though there are neither inclination nor openness between the lines. The fragility of this type of structure becomes apparent when looking at the price behavior.
The DMI on the daily chart shows bears mandating and maintaining the same levels of recent weeks. The bulls are improving their positions and gradually move closer to the level of the selling side.
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