Is Bitcoin price primed for a 15% retracement this week?

Bitcoin price shows no signs of bullish momentum with the start of the new week’s Asian trading session.
The ongoing consolidation will turn into a selling spree should BTC lose its critical support level at $26,555.
A decisive flip of the $30,000 psychological level on a higher timeframe would invalidate the bearish thesis.

Bitcoin price has been struggling to overcome a crucial hurdle for the past two weeks, leading to a tight consolidation. With the end of 2023’s first quarter, BTC has returned a whopping 72% return to investors. However, at the start of quarter two’s new week, the Asian session traders seem to be booking profits. Will this bearish start snowball into a weekly sell-off?

Bitcoin price ready to take on a new quarter

Bitcoin price largely overcame the tight correlation with the macroeconomic outlook in March, yielding 32% returns for the month. These newfound “inflation hedge” and “uncorrelated asset” narratives were the main drivers of this rally as a few traditional banks started collapsing.

Regardless, Bitcoin price seems to be stuck in a rut with no directional bias. For the last two weeks or so, BTC has been trading between $28,881 and $26,555 with a deviation above the range high on March 30.

Although Bitcoin may retest the range low this week, a breakdown below this level is yet to be confirmed. If BTC produces a decisive four-hour candlestick close below the aforementioned support structure, it would more than likely trigger a sell-off.

The 50% and 62% retracement levels at $24,201 and $23,078 are two major areas where buyers are likely going to step up. So these levels are good for sidelined buyers who are waiting to accumulate.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

On the other hand, if Bitcoin price bounces off the range low at $26,555, it will denote a lack of commitment from sellers. Should BTC produce a decisive flip of the $30,000 psychological level, it would invalidate the bearish thesis and attract sidelined buyers to accumulate BTC at market prices.

Such a move would serve as a tailwind for bulls and could prompt a rally that retests the $32,661 level.

Also read: Weekly Recap: Gary Gensler toughens stance on crypto, ZK coins rally, whales slow down BTC price rally

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