Gold's rise paints a bullish picture for Bitcoin: Bitwise

Bitcoin (BTC) could mirror Gold's 2025 rally if the current pool of sellers diminishes, allowing institutional demand to have a more impactful effect on prices, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.

Bitcoin could see its 'Gold 2025' moment

Gold's 57% rally in 2025 is painting a good sign of how high Bitcoin could go, Hougan highlighted in a note on Tuesday.

Hougan noted that central bank Gold purchases have doubled since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, rising from about 467 metric tons per year to 1,080 metric tons, citing data from Metals Focus. This level of buying is roughly twice the estimated demand from Gold exchange-traded products (ETPs).

He added that the impact of central bank purchases of Gold makes it obvious why Bitcoin is lagging.

"If central banks are the primary driver of Gold's rally, it makes sense that Bitcoin is not following Gold higher," Hougan noted.

Hougan stated that Bitcoin has yet to rally to $200,000 despite strong buying pressure from US spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporations because price-sensitive investors continue to sell upon every 10%-15% price change.

He also noted that Bitcoin's price has risen 2.3x since ETFs and corporations began accumulating in January 2024, but many short-term investors have used the rally to take profits and exit the market.

This behavior mirrors what occurred in the Gold market, where steady central bank accumulation in 2022 was initially offset by investor sell-offs that muted price gains.

"When central banks started buying Gold feverishly in 2022 and pushing prices up, these investors sold into the rising demand. But eventually that pool of sellers was exhausted, and prices took off," wrote Hougan. 

He suggested that a similar pattern could unfold for Bitcoin, with prices likely to accelerate once the pool of sellers diminishes and long-term demand takes hold.

Drawing parallels with Gold's performance, Hougan forecasts that once these sellers are exhausted, continued ETF and corporate demand could trigger Bitcoin's own "Gold 2025 moment."

Bitcoin is changing hands around $108,000 on Wednesday, down 3% over the past 24 hours at the time of publication.