Bitcoin underperforms Nasdaq following October plunge as K33 predicts rebound on the horizon

Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $111,000 on Tuesday, continuing to underperform the Nasdaq-100 (NDX). However, K33 analysts predict a bullish turnaround, citing strong fundamentals and potential macroeconomic drivers.

Bitcoin lags Nasdaq amid strong correlation with equities

Bitcoin is underperforming the Nasdaq and Gold in 2025 despite hitting $126,000 earlier in October.

The top crypto's correlation with equities has strengthened in recent weeks, while its relationship with Gold has weakened significantly.

"BTC exhibits high correlations with equities, with daily returns typically pushing in the same direction, as evidenced by the current 30-day correlations between BTC and the Nasdaq, sitting at 0.44," noted K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde in a report on Tuesday.

While Bitcoin has seen a rise in correlation with equities, the top crypto continues to lag in performance, gaining just 13.5% against the Nasdaq-100's 19.8% in 2025.

The slip in performance was fueled by the flash crash on October 10, alongside recent volatility. As a result, Bitcoin traders are exercising more caution, with lower gains compared to the Nasdaq on positive trading days and stronger declines on negative days, K33 analysts noted.

The contrast may also be traced to Bitcoin's dip to a four-month low of $103,500 on Friday. Although prices have since recovered slightly, traders appear cautious and are reducing exposure amid "subtle hints of strength," according to the report.

The impact of the recent dips led to a sustained decline in weekly funding rates, which have remained negative since the October 10 crash. The reversal marks a first stretch of average negative funding in Bitcoin perpetuals since May 8.

Despite the cautious tone, open interest increased by 15,800 BTC over the past week, signaling growing activity from short traders during market dips. The report states that the continuation of such trends could accelerate the risk of short squeezes.

This comes as K33 analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin, citing strong fundamentals and potential macroeconomic drivers.

Lunde cited a strong institutional adoption, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF nearing $100 billion in assets under management, financial advisors integrating BTC ETFs into portfolios, and a potential 401(k) access to Bitcoin products. "With monetary policy unlikely to tighten, BTC's scarcity could become an increasingly powerful driver, and this drawdown is a solid occasion to buy into the bloodshed," Lunde wrote.

BTC trades around $111,000 on Tuesday, down 0.3% as the crypto market shows signs of stabilization.