Ethereum Classic price ignores the Bitcoin charge, but ETC still nears a 70% rally

Ethereum Classic price claimed the enduring 2018 high at $47.00 last week with a 15.7% surge from the midline of the descending parallel channel, triggering better outlooks for ETC. However, the altcoin has failed to extend the price strength, finding resistance at the 50-day SMA and support along the 2018 high. Nevertheless, the outlook remains tilted to the upside as long as Ethereum Classic price remains above $47.00 on a daily closing basis.

Ethereum Classic price tracks altcoins, extending consolidation

The Ethereum Classic price rebound from the July low has been eight days, including today. During the first four days, it logged a gain of 25.7%, and over the last four days, ETC is down over -1%, while Bitcoin has continued the rush higher.

Despite the lack of follow-through, Ethereum Classic price has maintained the 2018 high of $47.00, presenting the potential for a substantial advance once a buying surge hits the cryptocurrency. The primary obstacle remains the 50-day SMA at $49.15. It has been pressing down on ETC for the last four days, similar to early July.

If Ethereum Classic price can overcome the resistance presented by the moving average, it will find some credible resistance at the upper line of the descending parallel channel, currently at $58.95. The next real setback for ETC does not emerge until the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June correction at $80.75 and then the May 26 high of $84.09, offering an intriguing gain of 71% from the 50-day SMA.

ETC/USD daily chart

A daily close below $47.00 disrupts the bullish outlook and invites a retracement of the rally to the midline of the descending parallel channel at $39.55. If Ethereum Classic price also closes below $39.55, it would imply a continuation of the decline to the 200-day SMA at $35.88 and the 2020 ascending trendline at $34.65. Any further ETC weakness will not attract support until the lower line of the channel at $26.40, representing a -40% decline from the 2018 high.

At this juncture, it is difficult to project a -40% decline when Ethereum Classic price trades in a constructive position in the overall price structure. Specifically, ETC is trading well above the 50-week SMA and the 200-day SMA, two strategically important moving averages. Moreover, ETC is not negatively influenced by a bearish Death Cross pattern or the resistance attributed to the June 22 low.

As long as Ethereum Classic price remains above $47.00, it is primed to surge 70%, despite deviating from the Bitcoin burst higher over the last four trading days. Once the commitment returns for the altcoins, ETC is well-positioned on the charts to claim a position of relative strength in the cryptocurrency complex. 

Here, FXStreet's analysts evaluate where ETC could be heading next as it seems bound for a small pullback before the breakout.