Decentraland price likely to rally 23% if MANA can flip this hurdle

Decentraland price has been consolidating in an increasingly tight range for more than two weeks. However, buyers are seemingly crawling out of the woodwork, suggesting an appetite for an increase in the market value of MANA.

Decentraland price position itself for more gains

Decentraland price has produced three lower lows and four lower highs since December 6, indicating a steady downtrend. However, after the December 15 swing low at $2.93, the tide is turning for  MANA, starting with higher lows, indicating a slow shift in favor toward bulls. Although there have been two higher highs, Decentraland price needs to produce a four-hour candlestick above $3.64, to solidify its stance. 

Such a development will confirm a bullish regime and likely propel MANA to retest the $4.01 and $4.21 hurdle. In total, this run-up would constitute a 15% ascent from $3.65 and 28% from the current position - $3.28.

MANA/USDT 4-hour chart

Supporting this bullish onslaught for Decentraland price is IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model, which shows the next hurdle extends from $3.57 to $3.92. Roughly 11,510 addresses that purchased 162,810 MANA at an average price of $3.75 are “Out of the Money.” 

These levels coincide with the ones seen from a technical perspective. While bullish, the run-up for MANA will not be a walk in the park.

MANA GIOM 

Further suggesting why an uptrend is likely is the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model, which is hovering at -22.5%. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased MANA over the past month.

From the current levels, this fundamental index suggests that most of these short-term holders are at a loss. Interestingly, long-term holders accumulate around these levels, hinting at a potential bullish outlook for MANA.

MANA 30-day MVRV

While things are looking up for Decentraland price, a failure to move past the $3.65 hurdle will indicate weakness. This development could see MANA retest the $2.93 support level, where buyers will have another chance at a comeback.

A four-hour candlestick close below $2.93, will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis for Decentraland price.