Cryptocurrencies rock the thin market
Market picture
According to CoinMarketCap, cryptocurrency market capitalisation grew by 2.5% over the past seven days to $1.18 trillion, but the magnitude of the increase was twice greater on Sunday. The pressure on the market resumed last night and peaked on Monday morning. And it looks like Bitcoin is again behind this decline as its price approaches 30K.
Bitcoin approached 30K again on Sunday, from where the selling intensified. The situation looks like the big players are playing games to warm up the thin market over the weekend and early trading hours in Asia, amplifying the amplitude of the move on relatively low volumes.
Worryingly, we have seen a series of declining tops in the last three weeks, and significant downside momentum is building faster and faster.
On the optimistic side, the avalanche of stop orders is not destabilising the market. Bitcoin is starting to buy back quickly as it approaches $28,000, where the 50-day moving average has shifted.
In terms of seasonality, May is considered a relative success for BTC. Over the past 12 years, bitcoin has ended the month up seven times and down five times. The average gain was 29.7%, and the average loss was 15.8%. Meanwhile, the last two Mays have disappointed BTC, with an average loss of 26% each.
News background
Glassnode recorded the most significant cryptocurrency inflows on Binance since the FTX crash last November. Often this signals a willingness to sell for dollars, but there are cases where Bitcoin sales fund the purchase of altcoins.
According to Germany's oldest bank, Berenberg Bank, bitcoin could rise significantly after halving next year. The fact that VTC has become virtually the only crypto asset to be classified by the SEC as a commodity rather than a security could also help.
Gary Gensler, head of the SEC, has said that cryptocurrencies should be treated as investment contracts, requiring platforms offering them to register and comply with securities laws.
Investor and billionaire Ray Dalio said he has a small number of bitcoins, but because cryptocurrencies are unreliable anyway, he prefers gold. He told Bitcoin holders should be prepared for an 80% drop.
Author
Alexander Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, has been with the company since its foundation. From time to time, he gives commentaries on radio and television. He publishes in major economic and socio-political media.
