BTC/USD Crypto Signal

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as the bearish price action took place slightly above $6,493.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time, during the next 24-hour period only.

Long Trades

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $5,950 or $5,777.

• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.

• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,353 or $6,553.

• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.

• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the longer that the price struggled to rise above $6,493 the more likely it would be to make a significant downwards movement. I was half-right, as the price only got a little way above that level before dropping dramatically. It is interesting how Bitcoin has tended to fall sharply whenever the stock market does the same thing, suggesting that Bitcoin is seen as a “risk” asset and in bad times seems highly correlated to other risky assets.

Technically, the price is now settling at the support level of $6,170 and is the action is showing some initial signs that this level will hold. There is a resistance level close by at $6,263. I do not want to use these levels in my analysis today as they are just too close by.

The wider picture has become increasingly bearish, and this has been happening ever since the bullish channel broke down a few days ago.

I would take a bearish bias today below $6,171 as it looks unlikely that the price will get there over the short term, so if it did, that would be a bearish sign.

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CPI data at 1:30pm London time.