Bitcoin Price Top Forecast: Bulls lurking in the shadows

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered from the losses incurred at the beginning of the week, but the upside momentum failed to gain traction. We still have $3,900 hurdle to work through, though the weekend might bring in some volatility considering invigoration on the market towards the end of Friday. The first digital coin gained 2% since Monday as the cryptocurrency market dozed in narrow ranges for the best part of the week.

Despite the slow start of the third month of the year, the market is still on the positive trend, recovering from the recent lows reached at the end of December 2018. Speculative investors might be unhappy about low volatility, but in the long run, it is for the better, as more predictable and less volatile markets attract large institutional investors with conservative investment approaches.

Thus, even the Chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission Christopher Giancarlo believes that the retracement from all-time highs is actually a good thing for Bitcoin. 

"In the case of Bitcoin, I would posit that the decrease in prices has helped end a speculative bubble and perhaps allow this novel technology and asset class quieter time to continue to develop from a technological and adoption sense,” he commented while speaking during annual blockchain summit earlier this week. 

What’s going on in the market

Binance Coin has been all over the place this week. BNB pushed to the seventh place in the cryptocurrency top chart compiled by CoinMarketCap. While it has retraced from the recent high reached at $15.49, it is nearly 30% higher on a week-over-week basis. Binance pump is attributed to the growing popularity of Binance DEX and a new token sale announced by the head of the exchange during the recent AMA session at Periscope

Also, regulators and authorities around the globe are up-and-doing. The UK Financial Conduct Authority conducted a survey to understand how citizens are involved in the crypto industry. Strange as it may seem, 73% of British consumers have no idea of what the digital money is. The results of the survey may sound a bit discouraging, but they are mainly in line with the similar researches made by other countries, including the USA and Russia. The low awareness actually means that the industry has significant growth potential as and when people learn about the new technologies and new forms of money.

A fight against cryptocurrency related crimes is also in full swing. Thus, Australian watchdog suspended operations of two cryptocurrency exchanges that allegedly participated in drugs trafficking, while the South Korean authorities created a special Task Force within the police department that will focus solely on cryptocurrency frauds and crimes. 

Meanwhile, the crypto community goes on discussing JPM Coin with Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse saying that it is actually good for the industry. It is an exciting twist as market participants often regard JPM Coin s XRP’s main rival and even XRP killer. Earlier Mr. Garlinghouse explained, why the coin developed by one of the largest US financial institutions was not an existential threat for this project.

BTC/USD, 1D chart

From the longer-term perspective, BTC/USD is well supported by DMA100 and DMA50 around $3,650); however, a sustainable move below this strategic line will expose even more vital area created by weekly SMA200 at $3,3989.  The next significant barrier formed by SMA50 (monthly) at $3,170 and December 2018 low at $3,126. While this scenario looks less likely considering the upward-looking RSI on a daily chart, it cannot be excluded entirely as long as BTC/USD is lurking below $5,000 area.

On the upside, psychological $5,000 strengthened by DMA200 is the ultimate goal for Bitcoin bulls that separates us from the trend reversal. However, we still have quite a number of barriers to take out before we get there.

In the near-term $3,900 seems to be the main obstacle, followed by $4,00-$,200 area that includes the highest level of the previous month, which is also the highest level of 2019. 

The Forecast Poll of experts shows that the market remains mostly positive about BTC; however, the average forecasts are no consolation for BTC bull as they imply more prevarication at the current levels. Estimates have not changed since the previous week.