Tanya Abrosimova
Independent Analyst
- BTC/USD is hovering around $3,200 as recovery is capped by strong technical levels.
- The key resistance $3,500 is out of reach as of yet.
Bitcoin bulls are desperate to take the coin above critical $3,200 level and stop the carnage. BTC/USD dropped as low as $3,126 on weekend, which is the lowest level of 2108, and cracked epic weekly SMA200 for the first time in history. This development colors Bitcoin's future in dark colors notwithstanding of what crypto enthusiasts are saying.
Lack of fundamentally positive news and a sense of iFUD will continue to push the cryptocurrency market down.
BTC/USD the daily confluence detector
BTCUSD is changing hands at $3,200, off the Asian high reached at $3,183; The price is trying to settle above critical resistance, however, slow momentum and bearish sentiments create unfavorable conditions for the upside movement. Daily RSI stays flat, in the oversold territory, signaling that more consolidation is likely at this stage.
The closes support area is seen right below the current price. It is created by a host of short-term SMA levels, 15-min Bollinger Band Lower, previous week's low and 1-hour Bollinger Band Lower. A sustainable move lower will expose $3,100 with 161.8% Fibo retracement daily; and, eventually, $3,000 with Pivot Point one-month Support 1 located right under this handle.
There is not much in terms of support levels below the current price, however, the previous week's low and psychological $3,200 may hold off the bears for the time being. Once it is cleared the sell-off may be extended towards critical $3,000 with Pivot Point one-month Support 1 and Bollinger Band Lower Daily located on approach.
The trip to the upside is riddled with numerous strong resistance areas, with the closest one located right above the current price level. The confluence of strong technical indicators includes Bollinger Band 1-hour Middle, Bollinger Band 4-hour Middle, Bollinger Band 15-min Upper, 61.8% Fibo retracement level daily, Previous 1-hour, 4-hour and 15-min highs as well as the host of SMAs.
Once it is cleared, the recovery may be extended towards the next handle at $3,250, guarded by 23.6% Fibo retracement level daily, Bollinger Band 1-hour Upper and SMA100, 1-hour. The next resistance is created by Psychological $3,300 with 23.6% Fibo retracement daily located right above that level.
The ultimate barrier is seen at 61.8% Fibo retracement weekly on approach to $3,500.
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