Bitcoin ‘never crossed’ $100K if adjusted for inflation, says Alex Thorn

Bitcoin came just shy of hitting a milestone six figures when inflation is factored in, despite the cryptocurrency hitting an all-time peak of above $126,000 in October, says Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn.

“If you adjust the price of Bitcoin for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC never crossed $100,000,” Thorn said on Tuesday.

“It actually topped at $99,848 in 2020 dollar terms, if you can believe it.”

Thorn said his adjusted price high for Bitcoin accounted for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decline in purchasing power incrementally across every inflation print from 2020 to today.

CPI measures inflation via the prices of a basket of goods and services and is calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to track changes in spending habits.

The agency reported in November that the CPI rose 2.7% over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted, decreasing the purchasing power of the dollar, which has lost around 20% of its value since 2020.

BTC did not reach six figures if counted in 2020 dollars. Source: Galaxy Research

US inflation remains high

Today, the price of goods is 1.25 times higher than in 2020, according to the CPI, and a dollar today only buys around 80% of what it could buy back then.

Inflation in the US skyrocketed above 9% in mid-2022 during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. 

Dollar Index plunges in 2025

US dollar declines have accelerated this year as measured by the Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which compares the US dollar to a basket of global currencies.

The DXY has fallen 11% since the beginning of the year to 97.8, according to TradingView. The index hit a three-year low of 96.3 in September and has been trending downward since October 2022 as the dollar loses ground against other currencies.

This has given rise to the “debasement trade,” an investment strategy where traders buy assets they believe will hold or increase value as fiat currency loses purchasing power.