$820 million in BTC options expire on Oct. 15, and data signals that bulls are set to celebrate another positive week.

Everyone is talking about a six-figure Bitcoin (BTC) price now that the digital asset has broken out of its multi-month downtrend and confirmed that a bullish trend is in play. 

If Bitcoin happens to enter a parabolic move toward $110,000, that would finally match PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model prediction. According to the pseudonymous analyst, the scarcity and valuation of gold and other precious metals and “Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crackdown” are a few of the factors responsible for the past five months of 50% or higher inaccuracy in the model.

Bulls’ hopes mostly cling to an exchange-traded fund being approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Currently, there are multiple requests pending review between Oct. 18 and Nov. 1, but the regulator could postpone its final decision.

Oct. 15’s $830 million options expiry was largely impacted by the 20% price rally initiated on Oct. 4, which most likely eliminated 92% of the put (sell) options.

Bitcoin price on Coinbase in USD. Source: TradingView

The aftermath of China’s mining crackdown was an important event that might have fueled investor sentiment, and research shows the U.S. accounting for 35.4% of the Bitcoin hash rate.

Furthermore, as Cointelegraph reported, the U.S. states of Texas and Ohio are also expected to receive additional large-scale Bitcoin mining centers, which will effectively boost the U.S. crypto market share even higher.

The Oct. 8 expiry was profitable for bulls

Following last week’s $370 million estimated net profit from the BTC options expiry, bulls had more firepower, and this is evident in this Friday’s $820 million expiry. This advantage explains why the call (buy) options open interest is 43% larger than the neutral-to-bearish put options.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Oct. 15. Source: Bybt

As the above data shows, bears placed $335 million in bets for Friday’s expiry, but it appears that they were caught by surprise, as 92% of the put (sell) options are likely to become worthless.

In other words, if Bitcoin remains above $56,000 on Oct. 15, only $36 million worth of neutral-to-bearish put options will be activated on Friday’s 8:00 am UTC expiry.

Bulls have a reason to push BTC price above $58,000

Below are the four likeliest scenarios for Oct. 15’s expiry. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies:

  • Between $52,000 and $54,000: 3,140 calls vs. 2,110 puts. The net result is $55 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.
  • Between $54,000 and $56,000: 3,700 calls vs. 1,240 puts. The net result is $130 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.
  • Between $56,000 and $58,000: 4,850 calls vs. 680 puts. The net result is $235 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.
  • Above $58,000: 6,230 calls vs. 190 puts. The net result is complete dominance, with bulls profiting $350 million.

This raw estimate considers call options being exclusively used in bullish bets and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, investors might have used a more complex strategy that typically involves different expiry dates.

Bears need a 7% price correction to reduce their loss

In every scenario, bulls have absolute control of this Friday’s expiry, and there are a handful of reasons for them to keep the price above $56,000. On the other hand, bears need a 7% negative move below $54,000 to avoid a loss of $235 million or higher.

Nevertheless, traders must consider that during bull runs, the amount of effort a seller needs to pressure the price is immense and usually ineffective. Analytics point to a considerable advantage from call (buy) options, fueling even more bullish bets next week.


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

DOGE holders may sell if it rises above key accumulation zone

DOGE holders may sell if it rises above key accumulation zone

DOGE will reclaim a key level if it rises by 5%, and traders will likely sell as they break even. DOGE's social volume has reached its lowest level in the past year. DOGE has underperformed other top meme coins year-to-date.

More Dogecoin News

SEC vs. Coinbase: Coinbase attorney's arguments fail to convince judge

SEC vs. Coinbase: Coinbase attorney's arguments fail to convince judge

SEC vs. Coinbase hearing on Thursday addresses the exchange’s demand that Chair Gary Gensler should testify. Coinbase Attorney Kevin Schwartz’s arguments fail to convince Judge Katherine Polk Failla.

More Cryptocurrencies News

Ethereum on-chain activity reveals mixed signals amid declining inflation

Ethereum on-chain activity reveals mixed signals amid declining inflation

Ethereum could rally in Q3 following reduced US inflation and launch of spot ETH ETFs. Ethereum's on-chain activity shows mixed sentiment among investors. Bearish exhaustion candle could signify a downturn for ETH if SEC delays ETH ETF approval.

More Ethereum News

Biden's veto stands, banks unable to  provide custody services for crypto

Biden's veto stands, banks unable to  provide custody services for crypto

US House failed to muster a two-thirds vote to overturn President Biden's veto of Joint Resolution 109. Several Democrats failed to support a repeal of the President's veto despite the increasing role of the crypto industry in the upcoming election.

More Cryptocurrencies News

Bitcoin: BTC sinks under $55,000 as Mt Gox prepares payment to creditors

Bitcoin: BTC sinks under $55,000 as Mt Gox prepares payment to creditors

Bitcoin (BTC) price is having its worst week of the year, influenced by selling activity among BTC miners and heavy transfers of Bitcoins to exchanges by Mt Gox and the German Government. 

Read full analysis

BTC

ETH

XRP