USD/JPY Current price: 111.92
- Japanese Nikkei moved marginally higher, also US Treasury yields in thin market conditions.
- US to release minor macroeconomic data as markets slowly return to normal.
Japanese markets were open at the beginning of the week, but the Easter holiday extended in Australia, New Zealand and now, in Europe, with major pairs lifeless around familiar levels. The USD/JPY pair remains stuck to a tight range, trading just below the 112.00 figure and not far from the yearly high of 112.16 achieved last week. Overnight, the Nikkei moved marginally higher, following the good mood seen last Thursday in Wall Street, amid strong US Retail Sales. Treasury yields also ticked up ahead of the US opening, somehow anticipating the positive sentiment will persist.
The US will release today the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March, previously at -0.29, and Existing Home Sales for the same month, seen down by 2.3% MoM. The country's housing data released Friday was quite disappointing and seems unlikely the numbers will surprise to the upside today.
The USD/JPY pair has been on a tear since the previous week started, having spent it in a tight 50 pips' range, bottoming at 111.76 and topping at 112.16. As long as it holds inside this range, little should be expected. The neutral stance is quite evident in the 4 hours chart, unable to advance beyond a flat 20 SMA, and as technical indicators rest flat around their midlines. However, in the mentioned chart, the 100 SMA has crossed above the 200 SMA below the current price, somehow skewing the risk toward the upside. Below 111.40, the bullish potential will decrease, and the pair would have room to extend its decline, at least short-term.
Support levels: 111.75 111.40 111.10
Resistance levels: 112.15 112.50 112.85
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