|

USD/CHF Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]

USD/CHF Elliott Wave technical analysis

  • Function: Bearish Trend.

  • Mode: Impulsive.

  • Structure: Orange Wave 3.

  • Position: Navy Blue Wave 1.

  • Direction next lower degrees: Orange Wave 3 (Active).

  • Details: Orange wave 2 within navy blue wave 1 appears complete; orange wave 3 is now in progress.

  • Wave cancel invalidation level: 0.91967.

The USDCHF daily chart analysis based on Elliott Wave Theory indicates an ongoing bearish trend in an impulsive phase. The focus is currently on orange wave 3, which has started following the completion of orange wave 2 within navy blue wave 1.

The transition from the corrective phase of orange wave 2 to the stronger and more dynamic orange wave 3 suggests an increase in selling pressure and downward momentum. This phase typically brings strong price declines, reinforcing the overall bearish trend.

With navy blue wave 1 in place, the broader outlook remains bearish. The development of orange wave 3 is expected to push prices lower, and traders should closely observe market conditions for continuation signals or potential corrections.

The wave cancel invalidation level is set at 0.91967. If the price surpasses this threshold, the current wave structure would become invalid, requiring a reassessment of the market outlook. Tracking this key level is crucial for confirming the ongoing impulsive wave or identifying deviations from the expected trend.

Conclusion

The USDCHF daily chart continues to support a bearish trend driven by the development of orange wave 3 within navy blue wave 1. As orange wave 2 has completed, traders should anticipate stronger downward price movements in the near term. Monitoring the invalidation level remains essential to ensure accurate market analysis and adjust trading strategies accordingly.

USD/CHF day chart

Chart

USD/CHF Elliott Wave technical analysis

  • Function: Counter-Trend.

  • Mode: Corrective.

  • Structure: Gray Wave 2.

  • Position: Orange Wave 3.

  • Direction next lower degrees: Gray Wave 3.

  • Details: Gray wave 1 of orange wave 3 appears complete; gray wave 2 is currently developing.

  • Wave cancel invalidation level: 0.91992.

The USDCHF 4-hour chart analysis based on Elliott Wave Theory indicates a counter-trend movement in a corrective phase. The current wave structure revolves around gray wave 2 within orange wave 3, signaling a transitional phase in market dynamics.

The completion of gray wave 1 suggests that the market has now entered gray wave 2, a corrective phase commonly marked by retracements or consolidations. This correction is expected before the market transitions into the next impulsive wave—gray wave 3 within orange wave 3.

The wave analysis implies that traders should expect potential fluctuations and sideways movements during this phase. Observing changes in market momentum and price action will be crucial in determining the next move.

The wave cancel invalidation level is defined at 0.91992. A breach beyond this threshold would invalidate the current wave count, requiring a reassessment of the market outlook. Close monitoring of this key level is essential to confirm the continuation of the corrective pattern or indicate a possible shift in market direction.

Conclusion

The USDCHF 4-hour chart presents a corrective market scenario with gray wave 2 in play after the completion of gray wave 1. Traders should anticipate retracements or consolidations during this phase and keep an eye on the invalidation level to refine their trading strategies. The next anticipated movement is the potential transition into gray wave 3 within orange wave 3, indicating a resumption of the impulsive trend.

USD/CHF four-hour chart

USDCHF

USD/CHF Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]

Author

Peter Mathers

Peter Mathers

TradingLounge

Peter Mathers started actively trading in 1982. He began his career at Hoei and Shoin, a Japanese futures trading company.

More from Peter Mathers
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD edges above 1.1750 due to ECB-Fed policy divergence

EUR/USD has recovered its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 1.1760 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders will likely observe Germany’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data later in the day.

GBP/USD gathers strength above 1.3450 on Fed rate cut bets, BoE's gradual policy path

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3480 during the early Asian session on Friday. Expectations of the US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year weigh on the US Dollar against the Pound Sterling. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson is set to speak later on the weekend. 

Gold climbs to near $4,350 on Fed rate cut bets, geopolitical risks

Gold price rises to near $4,345 during the early Asian session on Friday. Gold finished 2025 with a significant rally, achieving an annual gain of around 65%, its biggest annual gain since 1979. The rally of the precious metal is bolstered by the prospect of further US interest rate cuts in 2026 and safe-haven flows.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple enter the New Year with breakout hopes

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple entered the new year trading at key technical levels on Friday, as traders seek fresh directional cues in January. With BTC locked in a tight range, ETH is approaching its 50-day Exponential Moving Average, while XRP is nearing resistance. A clear breakout across these top three cryptocurrencies could help define market momentum in the opening weeks of the year.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).