US market: Weekly jobless claims, and further regional Fed surveys
The only macroeconomic information that we have received so far reflecting the chaos and disorder that followed "Liberation Day" are sentiment surveys. Thus far, all of these indicators paint a uniformly bleak picture.
Consumers and manufacturers fear higher prices from the tariffs and the latter, in particular, are pulling back on their investment plans amid the uncertainty. This is remarkable as US-based manufacturers are the intended beneficiaries of the tariffs.
The only reliable real economic data point, however, is the weekly jobless claims data, which has not increased and suggests that this uncertainty has not yet resulted in mass layoffs.
This week we’ll get additional April data points: weekly jobless claims, and further regional Fed surveys. To the extent that markets can afford to pay attention to anything but Trump's eruptions, these will be the focus of the week.
Author
Matthew Ryan, CFA
Ebury
Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.
