Yesterday was one of those days when investors insisted on seeing a glass that was one-tenth full as completely full. The US producer price data came in higher than expected. US President Joe Biden announced eye-watering tariffs on Chinese imports – that’s inflationary – and the Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell called for patience, again yesterday, and said that they did not expect the inflation battle ‘to be a smooth road’ but that the numbers ‘were higher than anybody expected’, and that it will probably take them ‘longer… to become confident that inflation is coming down to 2%’. Indeed, Biden is throwing a wrench in the works of the Fed with his China trade policy.

Overall, the inflation, Fed and China news weren’t supportive. But the market was quick to shrug off the bad news because some components of the PPI number that feed into the PCE – the Fed’s favourite gauge of inflation that’s due later in the month – were more muted.

All eyes are on the US CPI update today. Both headline and core inflation are expected to have moderated last month. If that’s the case, the risk rally will likely continue. And if it’s not the case, the risk rally could continue, as well. Until when? Until it doesn’t. 

This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

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